Cincinnati will need chaos to make College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff selection committee sent a clear message with its first CFP rankings on Tuesday which had Cincinnati ranked sixth.

The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings are always interesting and they certainly lived up to the billing on Tuesday night as we got the first set of rankings.

Not surprisingly, Georgia was the top-ranked team in the CFP rankings but some might have been surprised — even though they shouldn’t have been — that Alabama came in at No. 2.

Michigan State on the heels of its big win over Michigan last weekend came in third and deserved that based on the win over the Wolverines, who ranked seventh in the initial rankings, and of course, its unbeaten record.

Oregon, on the strength of its win at Ohio State, was fourth, which was maybe the biggest surprise. Many assumed that spot might go to Oklahoma or Cincinnati football since the Bearcats are currently second in the AP poll.

However, this isn’t the AP poll and anyone who has watched knows the Bearcats aren’t worthy of that ranking. They do have a nice win on the road against Notre Dame but struggled against Navy and had to rally against an Indiana team that’s terrible.

Cincinnati football is still sixth and has an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff but is going to need a ton of help. That much is clear.

The Bearcats were always going to need Alabama to lose another game and that’s now imperative. But it’s clear that they don’t control their own destiny and even though Oklahoma is behind Cincinnati right now, if it runs the table and wins the Big 12 that will change too.

Cincinnati football needs more than wins to make College Football Playoff

Really, if you look at the Top 10, six other teams have a better path to the College Football Playoff than Cincinnati football and that could include Michigan.

If the Wolverines won out which would include a win over Ohio State, my guess is they would jump Cincinnati, especially if Wisconsin winds up winning the Big Ten West.

Oregon obviously controls its own fate, as do Michigan State, Ohio State, which still plays the Spartans, and also Georgia/Bama.

Oklahoma and Wake Forest will need chaos to reign a little more, especially the Demon Deacons who have been the surprise story of 2021.

The Sooners and Wake, along with the hopes of a second Big Ten team and the Bearcats, depend on Bama losing. Otherwise, the SEC will get two teams because a one-loss Georgia team (if the loss is to Alabama) will make absolutely make it.

But if Georgia beats Alabama, things get more interesting.

The Big Ten champion, assuming it’s not Wisconsin or Iowa, will get a spot in the playoff. And Oregon will too if it wins out.

The fourth spot would come down to a one-loss Big Ten team, either Michigan State or Michigan in that scenario, Cincinatti, Oklahoma, or Wake Forest if it wins out.

That’s much more promising but still, the Sooners likely would need to lose and maybe even the Spartans depending on how they play against Ohio State, for the Bearcats to crack the top four.