SMQ: What is the value of a win versus a loss in the College Football Playoff?

2nd Down: Checking in on Cincinnati’s College Football Playoff hopes

Every week on second down, we check in with this year’s best hope to crash the College Football Playoff party out of the Group of Five. This year that team is American Athletic Conference juggernaut Cincinnati. Where do the Bearcats stand in their hunt for a Playoff berth after Week 11?

How were the Bearcats situated coming into Week 11?

Cincinnati found itself ranked No. 5 entering their Week 11 contest at South Florida. It was the highest ranking ever received by a Group of Five team, bettering the No. 6 ranking that the Bearcats were handed by the committee in this year’s first set of rankings. Though undefeated, Cincinnati found themselves behind three Power Five powerhouses with a loss on their record. At the same time, though, Cincinnati also boasted one of the best wins of the season to date as Notre Dame sat at No. 9 in the committee rankings.

How does the South Florida game change the narrative?

The grim reality is that a Group of Five team probably needs not only to win every game in the regular season but to win every game by eye-popping margins. Cincinnati headed to Tampa as a 24-point favorite against South Florida and left the Sunshine State after failing to cover the spread. While Vegas is hardly the final word on quality, point spreads do offer a solid identifier of public perception.

Remember, Utah became the original BCS Buster in 2004 largely because they dominated their opponents. (At the same time, that Utah team outscored opponents by an average of 25.8 points per game. Cincinnati is currently outscoring opponents by an average of 23 points, fairly close to where Utah was at in their landmark season. But Utah never won by less than two touchdowns, something that has already happened twice to the Bearcats this year.)

This game doesn’t do much to change the narrative, to be honest. Only Cincinnati beating up their opponents for a full 60 minutes will begin to tip the scales in their favor… and seeing more of their past and future opponents ranked would certainly help as well. Until then, there probably isn’t enough to give the Bearcats a final push.

Where will Cincinnati likely land in this week’s CFP rankings?

Look for the Bearcats to maintain their position at No. 5 this week. While there is some rumbling that Michigan could pass Cincinnati soon, if not this week, there is still enough of a gap that the Bearcats should remain at No. 5 this week. Oklahoma’s loss will likely move Notre Dame further up in the top 10, bolstering the Bearcats’ claim to at least maintain its top-five position.