College football 2021: Predictions for Power Five, plus AAC, title games

Big 12 Championship Game

Matchup: No. 9 Baylor (10-2) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1)
Time/TV: Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Spread: Oklahoma State -5.5

If you would’ve told me at the beginning of the season that the Big 12 title game was going to be Baylor vs. Oklahoma State, I would’ve called you crazy. This is a matchup that nobody saw coming. Neither of these teams were ranked in the preseason and neither were supposed to be very good this year. Yet they now found themselves ranked in the top 10 going into Championship Week.

Credit Mike Gundy and Dave Aranda for the coaching jobs they have done with their respective programs this year. Baylor’s playoff hopes are just about gone considering they’re ranked No. 9 and have two losses. They would need a whole lot of chaos to get in. But Oklahoma State has a very good chance at cracking the top-four if they can win. They’ll also need Alabama to lose but I don’t think Mike Gundy is even worried about that game. He knows that his guys need to take care of business against Baylor just like they did earlier in the season.

This is one of the few conference championship games that is a rematch of a regular-season matchup. These two teams met early in the season on Oct. 2. The Cowboys defeated the Bears in that game 24-14. Oklahoma State’s defense was the difference-maker and will look to be the same in this rematch.

It’s very hard to beat a team twice in one year, but I think the Cowboys will succeed at that. I think it’ll be a little more high-scoring than the last one. But ultimately, Baylor’s offense will struggle down the stretch against this stout Cowboy defense especially with their starting quarterback, Gerry Bohanon, questionable to play with a hamstring injury.

I believe Oklahoma State wins this game by a touchdown and I truly think they will end up in the College Football Playoff.

My prediction: Oklahoma State wins 27-21