SMQ: As usual, talent rules the day in College Football Playoff semifinals

Assessing the talent gaps in a 12-team College Football Playoff field

Sunday Morning Quarterback has previously discussed what a 12-team playoff might look like in 2021. That, of course, was prior to the release of the final College Football Playoff standings at the end of the regular season. Now that we have the committee’s hierarchy at hand, we can more closely assess how a Playoff might provide access for both the most-deserving and the most-skilled teams in the country.

First, let’s take a moment to break down what we’re looking at before we actually get into the numbers. We are working from the initial 12-team proposal put forth in the summer of 2021 by the College Football Playoff committee that offers automatic qualification to the top six conference champions, with the top four from that group receiving byes to the quarterfinals and the other two guaranteed home games in the first round.

Taking all of that into account, here’s how this year would play out if the 12-team playoff was already up and running.

We’ve already seen one of the matchups in the first round, with Oklahoma State taking down Notre Dame at the Fiesta Bowl. Of the four first-round matchups, three offer big gaps in compiled talent—including the Cowboys-Fighting Irish matchup where the team ranked lower in the Team Talent Composite emerged victorious. The fourth game, Utah-Ole Miss, is effectively a toss-up in terms of talent.

Here is the same bracket, but broken down with each school’s Team Talent Composite score.

Assuming most games would play out to chalk, with the more-talented team emerging victorious, most of the quarterfinal matchups would offer a solid amount of balance. Any upsets (like, say… Oklahoma State over Notre Dame) create even more well-balanced showdowns in the next round.

This certainly doesn’t fix everything, given that seven of the top 10 teams in terms of compiled talent would still be sitting at home during the College Football Playoff. Remember, though, that teams must first step up and help themselves before the selection committee can open its arms and welcome those teams into the fold. Those teams left on the outside can only blame themselves for failing to live up to their potential.

Talent will continue to serve as a major indicator of success between teams in the College Football Playoff, and the usual suspects will likely reach the championship game no matter how many rounds are built into the bracket. But if the ultimate goal is to create better matchups and expand access, the status quo is far worse than growing a dozen strong.