The cost-benefit ratio of participating in college football bowl games

What do NFL Draft prospects risk when they choose to suit up for bowls? Are the costs higher than opting out of playing one final college football game?

Bowl games give us great joy as fans, just as they do for thousands of players who arrive at neutral sites throughout December and January. But, in the College Football Playoff era, the majority of bowl games have also largely reverted back to their original design as exhibition contests.

For the majority of college football players, bowl games provide an opportunity to celebrate in a warm-weather environment in a low-stakes competition over winter break before returning back to campus for spring semester.

The calculus is a bit different for those college football players in position to cash in on their athletic talents as high selections in the NFL Draft that transpires in the spring after every college season. Injury is a constant risk on the gridiron, and every snap has the potential to end a player’s career. There is a certain logic to mitigating that risk of injury as much as possible prior to that first payday, though it is hardly a logic popular with everyone.

When Leonard Fournette opted out of LSU’s showdown against Louisville in the Citrus Bowl and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey sat out the Sun Bowl against North Carolina after the 2016 season, it ignited the spectrum of sentiments related to whether players owe the sport a final appearance in a bowl game. In the ensuing five years, the debate has raged on as more players decide to preserve their health and begin preparations for the NFL Draft.

It is a decision very few of us can claim to understand. Even those who played college football cannot fully comprehend the weight of such a decision unless they too were highly-touted draft prospects.

Marcus Lattimore is someone who can fully comprehend the weight of such a decision as one of the more star-crossed talents ever to grace a college football field. The electric South Carolina running back was a consensus to go in the top 10 of the 2013 NFL Draft until his final college season—and ultimately his entire playing career—was cut short on an October day in Columbia against the Tennessee Volunteers.

As a freshman, Lattimore was the top talent in the country. The Gamecocks star helped lead South Carolina to the SEC championship game, rushing for 84 yards in a loss to Auburn. In the ensuing Chick-fil-A Bowl against Florida State, Lattimore sustained a concussion in the first quarter and sat out the rest of the game.

No more opportunities would present themselves to Lattimore to play in bowl games, as he suffered catastrophic knee injuries in each of the next two regular seasons. The running back tore ligaments in his left knee in October 2011 against Mississippi State during his sophomore season, getting his leg rolled up while engaging another Bulldogs defender in a block.

A year later, Lattimore was carrying the ball in a divisional showdown at home against Tennessee when he bounced off one defender and another hit him low. This time it was Lattimore’s right knee that was mangled.

What looked like one of the most promising football careers of recent memory instead turned into a question of what might have been. Lattimore dropped from his consensus spot in the first round to a fourth-round flyer by the San Francisco 49ers, and he never played a down in a regular-season game after his injuries proved too much to overcome.

In a 2016 interview with Edward Aschoff of ABC News, Lattimore was asked about the decisions by McCaffrey and Fournette to forgo their chance to play in bowl games before going on to the NFL. Lattimore showed support for their decision while grappling with whether he could make the same decision.

"I wish them all the best in that decision. Me personally, I probably couldn’t do it because of my mentality. I always wanted the team on my back. I wanted to be in the game in the fourth quarter, 35-40 carries. Let me win this game for you, and let me go out with my guys.You can understand that [financial] side, but you also have to look your teammates in the eye and say, “I’m just going to skip this one.” That’s tough.In this situation, I get it. You have to be selfish, and you have to take care of your family, and you have to take care of yourself."

Weighing whether to opt out or to play in bowl games is one of the most complex and challenging decisions that college football players with legitimate NFL prospects will face up to that point in their lives. Conditioned from youth football through middle school, high school, and college to subsume their individual interests for the good of the team, it can be hard to disengage that mindset on the eve of potentially hitting a winning lottery ticket.

With 2:25 remaining in the first quarter of the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day, Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral stood behind center Orlando Umana in the shotgun. Facing third-and-20 at the Baylor 26-yard-line, Corral took the snap and dropped back in the pocket. Stepping to his left, he tried to evade the rush as several Baylor defenders broke through the line. Cole Maxwell fended off his blocker and wrapped up Corral around the legs, bringing the quarterback to the turf.

As Maxwell celebrated his sack, Corral remained on the ground. The quarterback, projected as a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, writhed in pain as medical staff came onto the field to assess the situation. Corral spent the rest of his day sidelined on crutches, uncertain about whether his professional career had vanished before it could even begin.

It provided a stark bookend for the first day of 2022. New Year’s Day kicked off with ESPN commentators questioning an entire generation’s passion for college football in the wake of high-profile players opting out of bowl games. The day ended with one of the sport’s most prolific athletes hobbling on crutches in street clothes.

Prior to the game, Corral was adamant about playing in the Sugar Bowl. Arguing that the bonds he had formed with his teammates over several seasons outweighed the risk of injury, Corral articulated his reasons for choosing to play in an AP interview leading up to the game.

"“If I was them and in their shoes and they had a quarterback that was in the same position, like, I just couldn’t live with what they would think of me, like, just leaving. No one really understands how close we really are. And it would have just been a wrong thing to do, just not playing.”"

Sounding much like Lattimore did in talking about how he would struggle with sitting out bowl games, Corral bet on his chance to lead Ole Miss to its first 11-win season in school history. The dice didn’t roll in his favor, but at least it seems like his decision will not have long-term ramifications. After an X-ray revealed that his ankle was sprained rather than broken, it appears that his choice to play won’t adversely affect Corral’s future earning power leading up to the NFL Draft.

The important part is that it was Corral’s choice to play at the Sugar Bowl, just as Fournette and McCaffrey had the choice to opt out of their bowl games. While players like Corral risked their bodies to suit up with their teammates one last time, others demonstrated that their love for college football wasn’t any weaker for their decision to stay on the sidelines.

Elite wide receiver Chris Olave traveled to Pasadena with his Ohio State teammates, helping the Buckeyes prepare for their matchup against Utah without taking the field for the game itself at the Rose Bowl. Olave’s decision to stay off the field on New Year’s Day preserved his health leading up to the NFL Draft, and it opened the door for other key contributors like Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have their breakout moment as the sun set over the San Gabriel Mountains.

Olave looked to love the game no less as he celebrated with his teammates at the end of the 48-45 thriller. Speaking with reporters at the Rose Bowl after the game, Olave’s reasons for traveling with the team sounded a lot like how Corral justified his participation and how Lattimore explained why he would presumably have suited up for bowl games.

"“I feel like I’m still part of the team. I didn’t want to leave my guys. I just wanted to support them. I was a starting receiver. Just to be able to be there with them playing on the field. It was huge for them, it was huge for me. I’m a team-first guy. Just to be here and support them.I trusted in my guys, the younger guys. I trusted in C.J. [Stroud], the whole team. So, I’m proud of them."

What shines through in each of these comments is love. Whether they suit up or stay on the sidelines, each of these young men articulated a love of their teammates and the sport that cannot be brushed away regardless of what they decided to do in their final bowl games.

Ultimately there is no right decision beyond the decision to respect each player’s autonomy. It is a cost-benefit analysis that few of us will ever have to make in our lives — and one for which there is no consensus even among that small pool of elite talents good enough to be considered for a potential first-round payday in the NFL.