Predicting the commitment of 5-star QB Arch Manning

Arch Manning may well be the most high-profile high schooler in the entire country right now. On Tuesday, dominoes fell that may show where he’ll finally land in 2023.

With Arch Manning’s recruitment coming down to three schools – sorry, the rumor that Arkansas is suddenly a front-runner is most certainly bunk – fans of Georgia, Texas, and Alabama have been looking to see where the newest member of the quarterbacking dynasty is going to land.

From calling Athens, Georgia “the best college town I’ve ever been to,” to establishing a connection with Texas QB coach A.J. Milwee, he’s certainly been laudatory of his top three. With visits coming this summer for all of those aforementioned schools, Manning’s recruitment is certainly past the seventh-inning stretch.

Yet, on Tuesday, Alabama picked up a commitment from four-star quarterback Eli Holstein. That commitment drove The Athletic’s Max Olson to tweet out that it “sure seems like it’s going to be Georgia vs. Texas for Arch.”

What Eli Holstein commitment means for Arch Manning

While one Eli Holstein doesn’t equal one Arch Manning, Holstein may not have committed if he knew that Manning was a serious candidate to land in Tuscaloosa. That doesn’t mean that Alabama is definitely out, but it’s a good enough sign that things are moving away from Alabama.

In that case, Olson’s tweet is right on the money. It’s Georgia against Texas for Arch Manning.

Both schools have their pros and cons. Manning does seem to know that the underlying strategy of recruiting for athleticism first is the best overall strategy in this day and age of college football.

Texas can offer more money than the Roman Empire. In addition, their receiver room is actually decent. Xavier Worthy was one of the top freshmen in the entire country last year, exploding on the scene against Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Isaiah Neyor – the explosive receiver transfer from Wyoming – may also be with the Longhorns in 2023.

Of course, the big elephant in the room is Quinn Ewers. The 19-year-old Texan transferred to Texas after a high-profile recruitment of his own. He landed at Ohio State, but came to Texas this offseason, after quarterback C.J. Stroud became the top-dog on the Ohio State roster.

Georgia, then, has a good shot at the inside track. While Texas can most certainly bring in players – with the exception of Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison this offseason – it’s not like Georgia doesn’t lack for appeal to college players looking for a jump-up in competition, either.

Even their current crop of receiving talent is good. According to PFF, Georgia’s got the two best receivers in the SEC in Kearis Jackson and stud tight end Brock Bowers.

With all those factors in play, and with Brock Vandagriff and Carson Beck being easier competitive targets for Arch Manning than Quinn Ewers would be, the Georgia Bulldogs will be the ones to land the New Orleans product.