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Big 12 football: Ranking how likely each school is to leave the conference

By John Scimeca

MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
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Some schools are more likely than others to abandon Big 12 football if given the chance in the ever-changing world of conference realignment.

Many have pointed to the Big 12 as a stable league in today’s uncertain college football conference realignment picture with the recent tumult that has engulfed the Pac-12 with the announced departures of UCLA and USC to the Big Ten.

It’s clear that the SEC is the most powerful conference in college football right now, especially with the soon-to-be new members in OU and Texas. The Sooners and Longhorns bring proud traditions, deep coffers, large fanbases, and, in OU’s case at least, strong on-field success in recent years.

The Big Ten isn’t far behind the SEC in terms of power and influence — just look at the conference’s new media rights deal that is worth $7 billion with Fox, CBS, and NBC. Ohio State is clearly one of college football’s best five all-around programs, and strong, influential programs like Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin ensure that the league will be competitive with the SEC in what’s shaping up to be the “mega conference” era of college football.

All eyes turn toward the ACC and Notre Dame now to see what the long-term future holds for the league and for college football’s greatest independent power. Although the teams in the league are bound by a media rights contract through 2036, it’s not crazy to assume that some legal settlement can be reached at some point for four ACC teams to bolt to greener pastures in the SEC.

The Big 12 is happy to be quietly out of these kinds of destabilizing rumors regarding its own long-term viability. Four new teams are set to join the league in 2023: BYU from the independent ranks and Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston from the American Athletic Conference.

The Big 12 will finally live up to its namesake within a couple of years — the league may be at 14 teams for a short time before it settles back to a dozen members for the first time since 2010.

The Big 12 can’t take anything for granted in today’s uncertain conference realignment world, however.

Here are the new-look league’s 12 members, ranked in reverse order of how like they are to leave for a different conference:

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