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Big 12 football: Ranking how likely each school is to leave the conference

By John Scimeca

MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
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STILLWATER, OK – OCTOBER 24: Quarterback Spencer Sanders #3 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys stiff arms linebacker Dae’Shawn Davis #43 of the Iowa State Cylcones on his way to a 21-yard touchdown called back for a holding penalty in the fourth quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium on October 24, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. OSU won 24-21. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
STILLWATER, OK – OCTOBER 24: Quarterback Spencer Sanders #3 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys stiff arms linebacker Dae’Shawn Davis #43 of the Iowa State Cylcones on his way to a 21-yard touchdown called back for a holding penalty in the fourth quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium on October 24, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. OSU won 24-21. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images) /

6. Iowa State

The Cyclones are a bit of a geographic outlier now in the Big 12, which is ironic considering that they started the league 94 years ago. You have to wonder if the Big Ten will ever see value in picking up Iowa State — in the world of constantly shifting conference allegiances, the Cyclones might be a better fit in the Big Ten West.

They play an annual scrum with in-state rivals, Iowa, which already plays in the Big Ten, so Iowa State might not even have the option of moving leagues.

5. Oklahoma State

It appears that OSU brass is aware that the SEC and the Big Ten are outstripping the rest of the competition and that the gap between those two leagues and the rest of college football will continue to widen. Neither league is particularly interested in the Cowboys at this moment, however, while the football program continues to overachieve under the stable reign of Mike Gundy.

Only OU has won more Big 12 games in the past decade than the Cowboys, who came up just short of the Big 12 title last December against Baylor. If OSU can retain last year’s level of success, it could be a game-changer in terms of the Cowboys’ current conference home of the past 62 years.

4. Cincinnati

The Bearcats were many fans’ favorite team last year as the first Group of Five team to reach the College Football Playoff, even if they got trounced 27-6 by Alabama in the national semifinal. Cincinnati will certainly be competitive in the new Big 12, but the geographic fit is what might make the Bearcats a better option for another league home in the future.

The Big Ten doesn’t need to add another Ohio-based team right now, but would that calculus change in the upcoming years if the Bearcats remain a nationally relevant team?

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