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Big 12 football: Ranking how likely each school is to leave the conference

By John Scimeca

MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
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SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 18: Jaren Hall #3 of the BYU Cougars warms up before a game against the UAB Blazers during the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl at Independence Stadium on December 18, 2021 in Shreveport, Louisiana. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 18: Jaren Hall #3 of the BYU Cougars warms up before a game against the UAB Blazers during the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl at Independence Stadium on December 18, 2021 in Shreveport, Louisiana. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /

3. BYU

The Cougars are an intriguing selection for the Big 12, but they are geographically isolated as the only conference team in the Mountain Time Zone (once they join in 2023). BYU should also threaten to win a conference title immediately, given the program’s success over the past two seasons.

Without a suitable travel partner like Boise State or Colorado, will BYU tire of flying to Iowa State and Central Florida to play league matchups? Time will tell, but at this moment, it’s not like the Pac-12 offers anything better to the Cougars than the Big 12 does.

2. Central Florida

The Knights are another odd geographic fit in the Big 12 as the league’s only team based in the Southeast. It’s nearly 900 miles to get from Orlando to Morgantown, West Va. and it’s even farther to reach Houston from the Bounce House.

There’s no doubt that the Knights have the potential to be a solid, power conference football program — but will that future be in the Big 12 if they find success? If the SEC isn’t interested by the team if it potentially expands to 20 or 24 teams, the ACC could try to make a play for UCF.

1. West Virginia

The Mountaineers fell from the pile of forgotten, discarded Big East schools in the last major NCAA conference shakeup more than a decade ago. They landed in the Big 12, which has managed to work out decently for the program.

Adding a team like Cincinnati is a nice touch for the Mountaineers, but would they say no to an expansion-minded ACC in the future? The chance to compete again against geographically closer rivals like Pittsburgh and former conference foes such as Syracuse, Boston College, and Louisville might tear West Virginia away from the Big 12 in the future.

1 bold prediction for every Top 25 team. dark. Next

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