Michigan State football: Win over Wisconsin is crucial and possible

Michigan State football (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) will face Wisconsin (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) this weekend in a matchup that has become underwhelming to look at.

Both programs are off to a rough start this year, and a win could do wonders for getting the year back on track.

For MSU, a win over Wisconsin is both crucial and possible.

How did we get here?

Preseason, MSU and Wisconsin were both expected to do pretty well. Most predictions had Michigan State at 8-4 or better, and Wisconsin was widely expected to bounce back and win the west. So far, both predictions are far from being true.

Michigan State was off to a good start — the Spartans were 2-0 heading into Washington — but got exposed in Week 3. Since then, teams have managed to replicate the Huskies’ success against Tucker’s defense and blow the Spartans out four weeks in a row.

Michigan State’s 2-0 start has diminished into a 2-4 record, and its remaining schedule is by no means favorable. The Spartans still have to face Wisconsin, No. 5 Michigan, No. 24 Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana, and No. 10 Penn State. At a glance, I see at least three more losses, which would put the Spartans at 5-7 in year three of Mel Tucker.

This weekend, however, is not one of those games. Maybe a few weeks ago I could have seen Wisconsin winning easily, but not now, not after watching the Badgers play football and fire Paul Chryst. Right now this seems to be anyone’s ball game.

Is it possible?

The short answer here is obviously yes. Sure, Michigan State has looked atrocious the past four weeks and its defense might as well be non-existent, but the Spartans still have a fighting chance this week. Wisconsin football has looked quite similar, and aside from its win over Northwestern last weekend, appears to be on the same level as Michigan State.

Michigan State will be hosting the Badgers, so home-field advantage will be on the Spartans’ side, and Wisconsin’s offense is not on the same level as Maryland, Ohio State, Washington, and yes, even Minnesota. Do I expect Wisconsin to have a good game? Yes, the Badgers are getting desperate for wins right now, but MSU has something else going for it: options and fight.

Why MSU might win

Right now Wisconsin is favored by a touchdown and ESPN’s FPI gives the Badgers a 52.5 percent chance of victory. Still, the Spartans have done one thing well throughout program history: win games with their backs against the wall. I think it’s possible, though maybe not likely, that Michigan State pulls it together this week.

Mel Tucker just signed a $95 million deal with Michigan State just last year (during his 11-2 campaign) and needs to prove he is worth the money. We all knew Michigan State would probably take a step back from 2021, but no one expected this much of a total meltdown.

The Spartans also have options at quarterback. Heading into the season, returning starter Payton Thorne was looked at as one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten. So far Thorne has looked awful and could warrant a change to one of MSU’s younger stars. Players such as Noah Kim and Katin Houser.

Thorne has a decent completion percentage, but his 9-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is cause for concern. Thorne also announced that he has not been at 100 percent since the Spartans’ opener against Western Michigan earlier this year.

I think a quarterback change could help, though admittedly would not solve the issues in East Lansing. The only thing that solves those problems are getting back in the win column heading into Ann Arbor, and that can start this weekend.