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Gut reactions, College Football Playoff projections after Week 9

By Chris Peterson

Oct 29, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart and teammates celebrate after they beat the Florida Gators at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 29, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart and teammates celebrate after they beat the Florida Gators at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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It was another fascinating week of college football and here are our gut reactions, as well as College Football Playoff projections following Week 9.

College Football Week 9 had a number of solid games on the schedule but when it was all said and done, there wasn’t much that happened that impacted the College Football Playoff chase.

Ohio State’s win over Penn State was the most significant. The Buckeyes trailed by five in the fourth quarter and Penn State could have shaken up the race with a win.

It wouldn’t have ended Ohio State’s hopes. But it would have given Penn State a legit chance to become a College Football Playoff contender and now all the Nittany Lions can hope for is a New Years’ Six Bowl if they win out.

Mel Tucker’s Michigan State team will be lucky to even make a bowl after a 29-7 loss to No. 4 Michigan dropped the Spartans to 3-5 on the season.

Since starting 8-0 in 2021, Michigan State is now 6-7 in its last 13 games, and all five losses this season have come by at least 10 points. It also looks like some of its players will be investigated for assaulting a Michigan player in the tunnel after the loss, so it’s an all-around bad day for MSU.

For Michigan though, it’s another win over a rival. We know Jim Harbaugh has had his struggles against rivals but in his last four games against some of Michigan’s top rivals, things have gone pretty well. The Wolverines beat Sparty by 22, won the last game over Ohio State by 15, beat Notre Dame in their last meeting by 31, and Penn State by 24.

The Wolverines are also clearly one of the top four college football teams and deserve to be ranked as such in the playoff rankings that come out Tuesday. We’ll see if the College Football Playoff selection committee agrees with that.

Here are some of our gut reactions to College Football Week 9 and also our projected College Football Playoff Rankings.

The top four teams are clear

This is subject to change but as of right now, there is no doubt about the top four teams in college football: Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Michigan.

All four of those teams have dominated this year and they aren’t winning by luck. Tennessee has had a couple of close games and Ohio State was pushed by Penn State on Saturday, but the game control has been pretty impressive.

Michigan has punted once in its last two games. The Wolverines will need to solve their red-zone woes before taking down the Buckeyes, but Blake Corum has run for at least 120 yards in six straight games and is already over 1,000 yards.

However the order, the committee should have those four teams projected in the College Football Playoff following Week 9.

The ACC and Big 12 have playoff hope but no margin for error

Clemson and TCU both need to win out to make the College Football Playoff. It’s hard to see there being enough chaos for either to make it as a one-loss champion, especially with how poorly each conference has performed.

Oklahoma State looked like a legit contender for the College Football Playoff before an embarrassing 48-0 loss to Kansas State on Saturday. The Wildcats are going to jump way up in the rankings, but they have two losses and their playoff hopes are likely over too.

TCU should be ranked ahead of Alabama in my opinion. Clemson should be too. Alabama doesn’t really have a super impressive win, although that will change if it beats LSU, Ole Miss, and then Georgia in the SEC title game.

For now, the Tide has a win at Texas with their backup QB and a win at home over Mississippi State. TCU’s wins aren’t looking quite as good now that Oklahoma State fell off, but the Horned Frogs did beat Kansas State and Oklahoma looks back on track.

Clemson is dealing with the same issue. Wake Forest looked horrible this week and all season, I’ve said they were overrated. Louisville proved that to be accurate. North Carolina State has really struggled without Devin Leary and Syracuse got smashed by Notre Dame.

Clemson will get a chance to show something at 5-3 Notre Dame, but a win over a then 5-4 team might be the best on their resume, which isn’t a good thing. North Carolina being 7-1 helps the ACC but only if the Tar Heels keep winning.

We know that Michigan and Ohio State play, plus its Tennessee-Georgia next week, with the winner likely playing Alabama. So, there could be three spots between the Big TEN/SEC teams taken and if Clemson wins out, I see it or TCU getting the fourth.

However, if one of those teams losses, then my bet is the second-place Big Ten team at 11-1 will get the nod because it’s clear that the ACC and Big 12 are inferior leagues at this point.

Is Oregon a legit College Football Playoff contender?

The Ducks certainly look like the best team in the Pac-12 right now. We’ll find out soon enough with a game against Utah looming, plus Washington, Oregon State, and a showdown with USC or UCLA possibly for the Pac-12 title.

Oregon already beat the Bruins and the best thing for them is to have USC keep winning. A battle of two 11-1 teams in the Pac-12 championship would be a dream come true for the league.

The Ducks have been dominant since that 49-3 loss to Georgia but their best wins are over BYU, Washington State, and UCLA. Oregon needs impressive wins down the stretch to make people forget that loss because as the No. 4 team in the College Football Playoff, Oregon could be in line to play Georgia once again and I think the committee will need a reason to give them another opportunity.

It won’t happen unless Clemson and TCU lose though. And if Georgia winds up a 12-1 team by losing in the SEC title game or even at 11-1 if Tennessee beats the Bulldogs, it would be hard to put Oregon in over that team.

So the Ducks need Georgia to keep winning and others to lose, but they are a contender and right there is USC and UCLA in the Pac-12 conference.

Group of Five berth is wide open

After UCF knocked off Cincinatti, the Knights entered the mix as a contender for the New Years Six Bowl bid that goes to Group of Five teams. Tulane is right there and ranked in the AP Top 25. The Knights might be too. Liberty and Coastal Carolina are the other teams to watch as both are 7-1.

Frankly, it’s a pretty weak year for Group of Five contenders. The Bearcats took a big step back and are far from a lock to reach the American Championship game.

Tulane is the only American team with one loss. So they control their own destiny as far as the New Year’s Six is concerned. After that, it could be Liberty, which could really help itself with a win over Arkansas next week.

Yet, if Tulane and Liberty falter, Coastal Carolina will be waiting in the wings to assume the spot, if it can win out. If not, finding that Group of Five team won’t be easy and that’s why a team like UCF could control its own destiny too, as long as it wins out and wins the American.

With all that in mind, here is our top 25 College Football Playoff projection after Week 9 of the college football season.

College Football Playoff Projection after Week 9

  1. Georgia
  2. Tennessee
  3. Ohio State
  4. Michigan
  5. TCU
  6. Clemson
  7. Alabama
  8. Oregon
  9. UCLA
  10. USC
  11. Ole Miss
  12. Illinois
  13. Kansas State
  14. Utah
  15. LSU
  16. Penn State
  17. North Carolina
  18. Oklahoma State
  19. Tulane
  20. Wake Forest
  21. Liberty
  22. Notre Dame
  23. UCF
  24. Syracuse
  25. NC State

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