Big 12 CFP hopes look very slim entering Week 11

Despite rocking with the undefeated Horned Frogs, the Big 12 runs a severe risk of missing the CFP due to TCU’s upcoming games.

When comparing today’s college football hierarchy to what we thought it would be during the off-season, it is clear to see that the Big 12 Conference has thrived on the unexpected.

Heading into this season, three names stood out as ones that could make a playoff run on the Big 12’s behalf: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. However, that ship has long sailed.

After Week 10, both OK State and Baylor sit with merely decent records of 6-3 while OU holds an even worse one of 5-4. Obviously, all of those losses left the trio spiraling out of the playoff race, and most would have normally assumed that such a fate ultimately spread throughout the rest of the conference. That is, until TCU arose from the rubble.

The Horned Frogs have been one of college football’s most pleasant surprises, seeing a 9-0 start to the Sonny Dykes era in spite of last year’s 5-7 run. The performance has left them as the sole CFP contender that the Big 12 has to offer, and every objective football fan can’t help but root for them.

But while TCU has done a tremendous job of giving the fans what they want up to this point, there is nonetheless a very strong chance that its underdog story could see a heartbreaking end—and soon.

What all could stop TCU from making the CFP?

The Horned Frogs have three games left on their schedule, and the first two are on the road against Texas and Baylor; as previously stated, both the Longhorns and Bears have respectable records of 6-3 today.

Now TCU is not beyond handling strong Big 12 competition, as it has already downed Kansas and Oklahoma State this season (Kansas being another team with a 6-3 record). But still, combining the pressure of perfection with in-state hatred easily takes the rockiness of these upcoming battles up a notch.

Not only that, but the Frogs have failed to truly dominate in the majority of their games, with six of their nine so far being decided by 10 points or less.

Some of the more noteworthy examples include: a 42-34 win against SMU, a 38-31 win over Kansas, a 43-40 double-overtime win against Oklahoma State, and a 38-28 comeback win over Kansas State.

It’s safe to say that the Frogs are at least capable of consistent play, but all four of those aforementioned opponents would have most likely lost to a great team by more convincing margins than the ones dealt by TCU.

In other words, the CFP bracket only takes four teams, and said teams have to be outstanding if they want to get noticed by the committee; TCU has simply not looked like an outstanding team.

Again, I am one of the many that are pulling for the Horned Frogs to succeed. However, the current questionability surrounding their potential leaves me afraid to bet on the Big 12 making a playoff appearance.