USC Football controls College Football Playoff destiny

A wild College Football Week 12 is in the book and here is our updated four-team College Football Playoff projection in the aftermath.

You aren’t going to see USC football in our College Football Playoff projections after Week 12 of the college football season, but there’s no doubt they are the big winner.

The Trojans knocked off crosstown rival UCLA on Saturday night and wrapped up a berth in the Pac-12 championship game in the process. The opponent is likely going to be Oregon, but the Ducks still have some work to do after their loss to Washington.

Yet, I’m firm in this belief: if USC football wins the next two games, it will head to the College Football Playoff.

The loss by Tennessee guaranteed that. The Vols gave up 63 points and saw their playoff hopes come crashing down thanks to South Carolina. What’s going to be interesting is where are they ranked. Will they still be ahead of Alabama and Clemson?

Clemson got good news in the loss to the Vols but the loss by North Carolina could be damaging because it needs a quality win and beating the Tar Heels might not look like one now.

Florida State is helping though and the Noles won again. LSU controls its own destiny. So does USC. The same goes for Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, and TCU.

The interesting team is Clemson to me. What happens if the Trojans lose, Oregon wins out and Clemson wins out? You’d have UGA (assuming a win over LSU), Ohio State, TCU, and then Michigan, Oregon, or Clemson in that scenario.

There are a lot of what-ifs but here are our projected top four after College Football Week 12:

College Football Playoff Projection after Week 12

1. Georgia

Georgia survived a scare against Kentucky and now just Georgia Tech stands in the way of an undefeated season. The Yellow Jackets did just upset North Carolina though, so maybe it won’t be as easy as some expected. If the Bulldogs keep winning, they are a lock and if they finish 12-1, they will likely make the College Football Playoff, even if they don’t win the SEC title.

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes also struggled against Maryland but survived. Their win over Notre Dame is looking better and they also have a top-10 win over Penn State on the road. The loss by Tennessee opens the door for the Buckeyes and Michigan to make it as an 11-1 team if things work out right.

3. Michigan

Despite the struggle, it ended up being a good day for Michigan in terms of its playoff position. I still believe the Wolverines need to beat Ohio State to make the playoff. But, if USC drops a game or maybe even TCU, it’s certainly possible. More likely is the scenario where it’s down to Michigan, Oregon as a two-loss Pac-12 champion and Clemson. Does winning the ACC push the Tigers ahead of Michigan? Who knows but the Wolverines would need help and are better off winning “The Game” next week which will be much harder if Blake Corum isn’t healthy.

4. TCU

TCU just needs to keep winning and it will make the College Football Playoff. Iowa State is up next and then, it could be a rematch against either Kansas State or Texas. I. have a hard time seeing TCU make the College Football Playoff with a loss. You never know though, but as long as they keep winning, they are guaranteed to make it, even if it takes more last-second field goals.

Control their own destiny: LSU and USC

The Trojans and Tigers don’t need help from anyone to get in. If LSU wins out and beats Georgia in the SEC title game, it will make the playoff.

The same can be said for the Trojans if they win the Pac-12 with a 12-1 record. They will have a win over Notre Dame too and that along with a potential win over Oregon would push them ahead of any one-loss team that isn’t a conference champion.

That’s where things stand after College Football Week 12 and if USC football drops a game, it would set the stage for a non-conference champion outside of Georgia to potentially make it.

There are just two weeks left but also a lot of football left to go.