2022 CFP Semis, Cotton Bowl prove how much we need a 12-team playoff

Last weekend’s College Football Playoff semifinals and the Jan. 2 Cotton Bowl provided enough drama and on-field action to convince anyone about the merits of an expanded 12-team playoff.

The skeptics for a 12-team CFP are out there, of course. Won’t the regular season be watered down? Are there truly more than a handful of teams that could potentially win a national title? What about the rest of the bowl system?

Put those doubts aside after New Year’s Eve CFP action and the Cotton Bowl from Jan. 2, 2023, between Tulane and USC.

Underdog wins by No. 3 TCU and No. 16 Tulane vs. more acclaimed foes prove that a 12-team playoff could be more dramatic than this year’s postseason.

First, the TCU Horned Frogs had plenty of doubters entering their game against No. 2 Michigan, the undefeated Big Ten champions. The Wolverines had just demolished Ohio State and had an overwhelming offensive line and rushing attack.

All TCU did was outrush Michigan by 80 yards, build a 41-22 lead in the second half, and hold on to defeat the No. 2-ranked team in the country 51-45. It was the first win by a Big 12 team in eight years of the CFP after several less successful appearances by Oklahoma.

Second, many said that Ohio State had no business reaching the CFP semifinals after playing a ho-hum 2022 schedule and then losing a lopsided regular-season finale to Michigan.

The Buckeyes proceeded to lead No. 1 Georgia (the defending national champs) for much of the evening on Dec. 31 before falling behind and then missing a long game-winning field goal attempt as the clock struck midnight.

Everyone knew that the Buckeyes had talent, but many had written off Ryan Day’s squad after the trouncing at Michigan a month before. Shouldn’t Alabama have gone in place of Ohio State, given that the Tide lost both their games on the last play? Or shouldn’t USC have qualified instead, given that the Trojans actually advanced to their league’s title game while Ohio State players sat on their couches during conference championship weekend?

Finally, Willie Fritz and the Tulane Green Wave showed the world why you never stop watching the end of a game in this year’s Cotton Bowl. Count this “non-Power Five” team out at your own risk — just ask reigning Big 12 champions Kansas State how that September visit from the Green Wave went. Tulane went 1-for-12 on third-down conversions and turned the ball over twice yet still emerged with a 17-10 win against the Wildcats.

Against the vaunted USC offense and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams (and stud wideouts like fellow OU transfer Mario Williams) on Jan. 2, Tulane trailed by 15 points with just four minutes remaining in the game. A touchdown, a botched kickoff, a safety, a last-gasp reviewed touchdown, and a crucial extra point later, and Tulane emerged with a dramatic 46-45 victory against the Trojans.

In the proposed 12-team playoff model that could take place soon, Tulane would be the sixth-highest-ranked conference champion to qualify for the playoff, perhaps taking on No. 5 seed Alabama in a first-round matchup. The winner would advance to play No. 4 seed Ohio State.

There’s no telling what a fully motivated and fully stocked USC team could do as a No. 10 seed in the first round of a 12-team CFP against No. 7 seed Clemson. Who’s to say that Tulane couldn’t have also given Alabama a run for its money? Or that Alabama couldn’t run the postseason table as a two-loss team to win it all?

A 12-team College Football Playoff will provide exponentially more possibilities for teams to redeem themselves at the season’s end. No. 1 and No. 2-ranked teams like Georgia and Michigan aren’t title-game locks just because they’ve achieved an undefeated regular season.

As this year’s bowl action has proved, all the pregame predictions become meaningless once the opening kickoff takes place. A 12-team playoff can’t come soon enough for college football fans, players, and coaches.