The 2023 Tar Heels will be far from ACC champion material

The UNC Tar Heels football team saw an impressive run in 2022, but being simply “impressive” isn’t going to cut it next season.

The UNC Tar Heels football team managed to turn many heads this season, going as far as to win the ACC’s Coastal division and give the program its first conference title game appearance since 2015.

Those heights were reached on the back of stud quarterback Drake Maye, a redshirt freshman who had a season so statistically dominant that many recently saw him as a “Heisman snub.”

And of course, the UNC success story would not be complete without recognizing the influence of legendary head coach Mack Brown. This season, Brown once again reminded us of his outstanding football IQ and has the Tar Heels placed as a top-4 recruiting power in the ACC’s 2023 team rankings.

With all of that said, the current state of North Carolina football is quite respectable, and what really has people on the edge of their seats is the fact that, on paper, the Heels should be almost guaranteed to climb the college football food chain even further.

But sadly, virtually all instances of teams receiving hype involve at least a touch of delusion, and many fall victim to it when looking at UNC’s ultimate place in the ACC hierarchy. Said delusion is almost always a result of ignoring concerns from the past, present, and future.

For starters, North Carolina has been one of the Atlantic Coast’s stronger recruiting powers for several years now and has been no stranger to promising quarterbacks in that stretch. Just a couple of recent examples would be Sam Howell and Mitchell Trubisky (though the latter had moved on to the NFL before Mack Brown’s return to the program).

Yet in spite of all the talent on their rosters, the Tar Heels have consistently failed to grow into anything more than a “good” team. The 2022 squad was no exception to this problem.

How did UNC football miss the mark in 2022?

As we’ve already established, North Carolina managed to win its division this season, and that is a genuine accomplishment that should not be overlooked. However, the 2022 ACC Coastal was not exactly a death sentence, so with the Heels winning it being the highlight of their year, they were bound to leave many wanting more.

Speaking of which, let’s step away from the title and look at the quality of UNC’s season-long performance, as that is the best way to gauge the worth of the run in its entirety.

Simply put, the Tar Heels were not very convincing in several of the games that they won, with six of their nine victories being decided by seven points or less. As for their five losses, not only were two decided by double-digit deficits but another was dealt by Georgia Tech—a team that didn’t even go bowling.

Perhaps the most concerning flaw, though, was the loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. The Tigers straight-up dismantled UNC, handing the Heels their most convincing loss of 2022 (29-point deficit) while also containing their score production better than anyone else had all year (held them to only 10 points). If one detail had to be labeled as the most telling in regards to UNC football being nowhere near conference champion status, that’s the one I’m going with.

Especially when considering its aforementioned inability to take advantage of strong recruiting, would it be fair to say that North Carolina should not be seen as a true ACC contender until further notice? I think so, but before we lock it in, we ought as well take a look at who all will face UNC in the fall.

Next season, the Tar Heels have a conference slate that is far from a cakewalk. This is mainly because they have to meet all three of the league foes that beat them in 2022 (Georgia Tech, NC State, and Clemson) on the road. But while that fact alone is brutal enough, the list of threats does not end there.

Beyond that nightmarish trio, the Heels will also have to endure battles with Duke (9-4 team in 2022, lost to them 38-35), Miami (lost to them 27-24), Virginia (lost to them 31-28), and Pittsburgh (9-4 team in 2022, will be hosting them this fall).

The only thick layer of security that North Carolina fans can hold onto right now is the fact that their Heels beat Pitt by three scores this season. Even that promises very little at this point, though, as the Panthers are 5-0 since that loss—and they have won those five games by an average margin of 14 points.

I have already applauded UNC for having the pieces to become an ACC contender, so I don’t want this article to come off as me simply hating on the Tar Heels. Rather, all I have done here is recognize their tendency to miss expectations. As a result of having done so, I find it very hard to believe that their menacing 2023 slate will be the one to see them break such a nasty habit.