Despite TCU run, Big 12 is in rough shape entering 2023

TCU broke a huge barrier for the Big 12 this last season, but it’s going to take a lot more than that to save the conference from its future.

For a moment there, it appeared as if the Big 12 Conference was in for a rather unflattering stretch. This was due to multiple concerns, including the league’s typical playoff struggles and the matter of both Oklahoma and Texas gunning for the SEC. There is one good thing that came from all of this, though: it made the revival of TCU football even greater.

The 2022-23 Horned Frogs saw one of the most legendary turnarounds in college football history, with just one offseason being enough to turn a non-bowl team into a title contender. When TCU made the playoff bracket, it became the first Big 12 power to do so since 2019-20 Oklahoma—and that was not the only first it hit.

Simply put, the Frogs did two things that the Big 12 had never seen before. One was that they were the conference’s first playoff team not named Oklahoma. The other was that they were the conference’s first team to ever win a playoff game.

TCU’s outstanding run was made on the back of an elite offense, an offense led by quarterback Max Duggan and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Duggan was one of the nation’s most promising QBs this last season, with his dominance landing him second place for the Heisman Trophy. As for Riley, he won the Broyles Award for his sizable impact from the sideline.

With the Frogs bathing in that kind of success, it’s now quite difficult to imagine the future of the Big 12 being so dark. Or is it?

While TCU is the talk of the town today, there are still a ton of question marks floating around when it comes to gauging the quality of the entire conference going forward. In fact, said question marks begin with the Horned Frogs themselves.

As previously established, the bulk of TCU’s success was due to its quarterback and offensive coordinator—neither of which will be on the team next season. While Duggan is declaring for the 2023 NFL Draft, Riley has taken the OC job at Clemson.

Especially after the Frogs finished their season with a 65-7 loss to Georgia, nothing about any of that looks good. While it does not necessarily mean that they will be bad next season, it makes their chances of returning to the CFP seem rather slim. But lacking a clear-cut playoff team is just the tip of the iceberg when discussing the Big 12’s problems.

Even when refusing to recognize TCU, there are still several Big 12 teams that will be entering the fall on unpleasant notes, most notably Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.

How did those teams finish 2022 on the wrong foot?

All of those teams share at least two things in common: they saw a strong season in 2021 and/or 2022, and the latter ended horribly for them.

First up, we have Kansas State. The Wildcats recently won the Big 12 over TCU, giving them their first undisputed conference crown since 2003. However, their impressive run ended with a 45-20 beatdown dealt by Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

As for the Longhorns, they saw eight wins in 2022, which is a decent run by most standards. But nonetheless, losing five games (including the Alamo Bowl against Washington) leaves a lot to be desired from fans of such a historically dominant program.

That brings us to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. Because of their bowl losses, the Sooners suffered their first losing season (6-7) since 1998, the Cowboys fell to 7-6 for only the third time since 2007, and the Bears went 6-7 despite winning the Big 12 just a year prior. If 2023 is anything like 2022 for these three, things are going to get ugly in the Big 12 real quick.

And to make matters even worse, the league can’t afford to get its hopes high about the four teams that will soon be joining it, either.

When the Big 12 originally announced that it would be adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, there was a lot of hype surrounding the moves. This was not only due to how actively the conference responded to OU and Texas’ upcoming departures but also to the quality of each program at the time of the news.

The Big 12’s acceptance of the four broke loose back in September of 2021, while all of them were in the middle of menacing runs. By the end of that season, BYU had gone 10-3, Cincinnati had gone 13-1 (with a playoff appearance), Houston had gone 12-2, and UCF had gone 9-4. Unfortunately, the group doesn’t look so intimidating anymore.

In 2022, a 9-win UCF went from being the worst of the bunch to being the best, as BYU fell to 8-5, Cincinnati fell to 9-4, and Houston fell to 8-5.

As far as how well they did against Power 5 competition—which is important, considering that is what they will soon be facing weekly—they combined for a record of 4-9 (including BYU’s loss to Notre Dame). Yikes. When you are a struggling conference that is fixing to lose two of its largest football programs, you want a little bit more to work with than that.

The Big 12 saw a sliver of hope this last season, but that was all it was: a sliver. In regards to how the league sits in 2023 and beyond, the circumstances could not be more worrisome.