Baylor football: Realistic expectations for the Bears in 2023

The 2022 season was disappointing for Baylor football. Dave Aranda’s team was coming off a Big 12 title in 2021 and they were hoping to repeat but fell way short, going just 6-7.

The Bears moved on from Gerry Bohanon and went with Blake Shapen at quarterback and he finished with 2,790 yards and 18 touchdowns with 10 picks and while it was an up-and-down year for him, he figures to be improved in 2023.

Baylor also brings back its top rusher in Richard Reese who broke out in his first year to go along with Qualan Jones and Taye McWilliams.

Defensively, Baylor took a step back in 2022, but it figures to improve on that side of the ball next season with a defensive-minded coach like Aranda running the show.

So what would be a realistic expectation for this team after a sub-.500 season?

Realistic Baylor football expectations for 2023

The Bears will bring back some key players as well as the No. 33 recruiting class in the country to go along with 10 transfers — most notably Dominic Richardson, Clark Barrington, and Ketron Jackson.

Baylor is one of the better teams in the Big 12, talent-wise, but will the Bears reach expectations or will they fall short like they did in 2022?

Looking at the schedule, Baylor should start the season with a win over Texas State and I think it’ll win a close one over Utah at home. The Bears will win against LIU and lose a close one against Texas the following week before taking down UCF in a hostile environment. They’ll beat Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Houston in consecutive games to improve to 8-1 on the year. They’ll lose their next two road games at Kansas State and TCU to drop to 8-3 before beating West Virginia in the season finale.

I think a realistic expectation for this team would be 9-3 with a worst-case scenario being 7-5 or 8-4 and best-case scenario being 10-2 with a small chance at 11-1.

We’ll see a nice bounce-back season from Baylor.