Iowa State football: Realistic expectations for Cyclones in 2023

The 2022 season was a nightmare for Matt Campbell and Iowa State football. The Cyclones finished just 4-8 and had one conference win. It was basically worst-case scenario for a program that had been on the rise under the energetic head coach.

But will it get any better in 2023?

The Big 12 is only going to get tougher with Oklahoma bouncing back in year two of Brent Venables, Texas looking to make noise in its last year in the conference, TCU looking like a program on the rise, Baylor likely to rebound under Dave Aranda, Oklahoma State always being a thorn in everyone’s sides, Kansas on the rise, Texas Tech looking like a formidable foe, and Kansas State as the reigning conference champion.

Iowa State is going to have a tough time climbing out of the basement that it surprisingly put itself in during the 2022 season, but Campbell is more than capable of getting the job done as he’s shown in the past.

So what are the realistic expectations for this team?

Realistic expectations for Iowa State football

Hunter Dekkers is back at quarterback after throwing for 3,000 yards and 19 touchdowns, but he has to cut down those interceptions (14) if the Cyclones are going to compete. If not, he may be fighting for his starting job against a true freshman in top-150 prospect JJ Kohl — it wouldn’t be the worst thing for the future of this program.

Jirehl Brock is also back as the team’s leading rusher and while Xavier Hutchinson is gone after a 1,000-yard receiving season, two of the top three pass-catchers are back.

The defense should be a strength yet again and I think we’ll see this team improve.

Looking at the schedule, I can see Iowa State starting 3-1 with a split against rival Iowa (breaking in a new quarterback and the game is in Ames) and Oklahoma State. Then the Cyclones will lose at Oklahoma the following week before facing a TCU team that shocked everyone last year, but without Max Duggan, it might be in trouble. That one’s a toss-up. I see them losing the next two road games against Cincinnati and Baylor before getting winnable matchups against Kansas and BYU. Texas and Kansas State will beat the Cyclones to end the regular season.

Realistically, I can see Iowa State winning six games and making a bowl game. A 6-6 record is definitely realistic while another 4-8 season would be the worst-case scenario and 7-5 would probably be the ceiling for this team.

I think Iowa State will be back in the postseason in 2023.