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Baylor football: Realistic post-spring expectations for 2023

By Connor Muldowney

Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Blake Shapen (12) in action during the game between the Baylor Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Blake Shapen (12) in action during the game between the Baylor Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dave Aranda’s third season as Baylor football coach didn’t quite go as planned as the Bears took a couple of steps back and went 6-7 with an Armed Forces Bowl loss to Air Force.

It was a far cry from the Big 12 title season the year before.

Now, with Blake Shapen adding a year of experience and comfortability as QB1, expectations should be back on the rise for the Bears. Does this mean we’ll see Baylor pushing for another Big 12 title? Probably not, but I think it’s fair to expect a winning percentage over .500.

Aranda brings back his starting quarterback, his starting running back, and three of his top receivers on offense. On defense, five starters return to a unit that ranked 69th in scoring and allowed 371 yards per game. He also brings in the nation’s No. 35 recruiting class along with 13 incoming transfers.

Guys like Mike Smith, Dominic Richardson, Clark Barrington, Ketron Jackson, and Campbell Barrington should all have major impacts next season from the portal and each of those guys could start.

I think we’ll see Baylor take another step back in the right direction after a forgettable 2022 season.

Realistic Baylor football post-spring expectations

Baylor is bringing back a number of key players on both sides of the ball like Matt Jones, Gabe Hall, Garmon Randolph, TJ Franklin, Richard Reese, and Shapen while also supplementing them with some key impact transfers and freshmen.

Looking at the schedule, the “sure” wins I see for Baylor are Texas State, Long Island, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, and West Virginia. If they take care of all of those teams like they should, the Bears’ bare minimum should be six wins. The toss-up games are Utah, Texas, UCF, and Cincinnati. The likely losses are Kansas State and TCU.

Let’s say they win the home games in the toss-ups and lose the likely losses, the Bears are sitting at 8-4 this season. I think that’s very realistic.

A 7-5 record would also be possible, but it’s realistic to expect eight wins from this team.

Next. College football's post-spring Top 25 projections. dark

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