Predicting what’s next in college football conference realignment

What will the SEC do?

Florida State threw its hat into the college football conference realignment ring and there are probably a few other ACC programs that are glad they did.

The Pac-12 is still trying to put together a TV deal even though it has nine teams and is on the verge of losing even more. The ACC has a rights deal that is signed through 2036. The problem the deal has much less value than Big Ten/SEC teams are getting and programs like Florida State should rightly be concerned about being left behind.

College football is moving toward two super conferences and programs like Florida State, Miami, and Clemson don’t want to be left out.

If the SEC makes a move at any point, those three teams make a lot of sense. They are big names and make sense geographically, as well as from a rivalry perspective.

I’m sure both the SEC and Big Ten are going to make a run at Notre Dame, but if the Irish can re-up their TV deal with NBC at a favorable dollar rate, the Irish might not need to join a conference.

What conference is going to fall apart?

My prediction is the Pac-12.

The league is already under 10 teams and is struggling to complete a TV deal. I’m wondering if the idea of a merger between the Big-12 and Pac-12 will still be on the table, although if four more teams leave the Pac-12 and just five remain, there won’t be many options.

Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State would have no choice. Oregon State and Washington State would be in the same boat. Toss in Boise State and San Diego State or maybe a couple of ACC or American schools and the Big 12 could get to 20 easily.

Before long, college football conference realignment could mean three or four super conferences of 20 teams, with everyone else left out in the cold.

Things like that have been predicted before, but if more teams leave the Pac-12 soon, which could happen as early as this week, it seems like at least one or two Power-5 conferences will be on the verge of changing forever.