College football 2023: Most overrated, underrated teams by Power 5 conference

Oct 15, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) gets set to run a play in the first half in the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 15, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) gets set to run a play in the first half in the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /
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ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – NOVEMBER 19: Ronnie Bell #8 of the Michigan Wolverines plays against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – NOVEMBER 19: Ronnie Bell #8 of the Michigan Wolverines plays against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Big Ten

Most overrated: Michigan

Michigan has the pieces to be a terrific football team for the third year in a row. The Wolverines could knock off archrival Ohio State, win the Big Ten Conference championship, and reach the four-team College Football Playoff… all for the third year in a row.

The AP pollsters think that the Wolverines can handle all this, given the No. 2 preseason ranking that they’ve given the team. Michigan returns plenty of generational talent at quarterback, running back, the defensive line, and the secondary. But there are concerns for a team that’s gunning for its first visit to the title game (‘de facto’ or otherwise) since 1997.

Questions abound about who will step up to be the second corner opposite star sophomore Will Johnson. For the experience that Michigan has under center with junior J.J. McCarthy, it’s unclear which of the wide receivers will step up and be consistent — consider that last year’s passing attack ranked No. 82 in the nation (219.9 yards per game).

Most underrated: Illinois

The AP pollsters seem to think that teams like Toledo, Troy, and Minnesota will outperform the Fighting Illini this season, and I’m not sure exactly why. The Illini were an under-the-radar squad that went 8-4 in the regular season, with all four losses coming within one possession — including a 19-17 loss at eventual Big Ten champion Michigan.

Although Illinois lost three defensive starters to the 2023 NFL Draft last spring, the team returns plenty of talent such as defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton, a 2022 second-team All-American. The Illini had the nation’s best scoring defense (12.8 points allowed per game) last year.

Publications like Lindy’s have Illinois pegged as the ninth-best team in the Big Ten this preseason. The preseason Big Ten media poll slots the Illini at fourth in the Big Ten West behind Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

Illinois defeated all three of these teams last year and could do it again this fall (including last year’s 34-10 whipping of the Badgers in Madison). Third-year head coach Bret Bielema has built an impressive program in Champaign, but he doesn’t seem to have garnered much respect on a national level.