College football best bets, Week 0: 3 expert picks to hammer

63.5 over/under San Jose State at USC 8 PM EST (Pac-12 Network)

The Trojans are a 30.5-point favorite but I’m not super confident in that number for a couple of reasons. San Jose State did lose some key pieces on defense including some pass rushers which isn’t a good thing heading into a matchup against Caleb Wiliams.

Brent Brennan led San Jose State to a conference title not that long ago and the Spartans were 7-5 a year ago. They also have their veteran quarterback returning in Chevan Cordeiro. He threw for 3,251 yards last season and accounted for 32 total touchdowns.

USC can score — no question about it. Caleb Williams feels like he’s got a great chance to repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner, but San Jose State isn’t the usual Mountain West pushover.

This is also a San Jose State team that is good enough offensively to take advantage of USC if the defense hasn’t really improved. Adding guys like Bear Alexander will help. Domani Jackson should be elite at cornerback in his second season.

Cordeiro is a dual-threat option though and that’s why I’d bet the over in this matchup. USC is going to have an elite offense once again and 40-some points in this game seems reasonable.

Even a 42-21 win would have the two teams nearly hitting the over. 30.5 seems a little too big but if the Trojans do get close to that number, I’d expect this game to hit the over, which could easily be hit even if the Trojans don’t end up covering, that’s why it’s my pick for this matchup.

Pick: Over