3. The unpredictability of Gus Malzahn teams
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about slandering Malzahn. He’s revolutionized the sport with his offensive innovations and has recruited at a high level during his time with both Auburn and UCF. He is also a great coach to be leading the UCF transition to the Big 12 conference. He’s succeeded in the sport’s most competitive conference, and he’s brought that expertise to a program that is learning what it takes to be in the Power Five.
The thing is, however, his teams have weird slip-ups every single year. Last year, it was the game against Navy. The Knights entered as 15.5-point favorites at home and lost to the Midshipmen 17-14.
The trend started during his time at Auburn. In 2018, his eighth-ranked Tigers traveled to Mississippi State and came away with just nine points and a loss. In 2017, a similar result occurred when his 10th-ranked Tigers went to Baton Rouge and laid an egg in the second half of a loss to Danny Etling and LSU.
This Saturday, the Knights are 3.5-point favorites on the road. The momentum fully favors UCF. Boise State limps out of a 56-19 loss to Washington and the Knights got a tune-up against Kent State last week.
With everything indicating that the Knights are the superior team at the moment, this is a prime candidate to be one of those weird, flat UCF performances. If that’s the case, at least it’ll be out of the way early this season.