College Football Playoff: Buying or selling top 10 teams

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The second College Football Playoff rankings of 2023 are out and there was no movement in the top eight. All eight teams won and the committee didn’t see any reason to shake up the top group of elite teams. If we know college football, we know that the chaos is coming.

The top 10 has one new team this week, Penn State. Oklahoma fell out with a loss and the No. 10 Nittany Lions jumped in right in time for a matchup with No. 3 Michigan. That’s not the only top-10 matchup this week. No. 2 Georgia is hosting No. 9 Ole Miss, so it’s time to buy or sell on these top 10 teams.

Which ones have a real shot at the College Football Playoff and which ones are primed for a late-season collapse?

I’ll go through the top 10 teams and the ones I’m buying, I expect to finish higher than their current ranking and the ones I sell are teams I think will fall throughout November. Simple enough? Let’s go!

Nov 4, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) and Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin (right) react after defeating the Texas A&M Aggies at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Penn State: Selling

This is pretty simple for both Penn State and Ole Miss. Do I think they’re going to win this weekend? The answer for both teams is no, so I have to sell. If Penn State finished with two losses, one to Ohio State and another to Michigan, it’ll be a good year, but a failure.

Drew Allar was the five-star who was supposed to bring those big wins to Happy Valley, but he’s the safe, risk-averse antithesis to Trace McSorley, the last guy to win the Big Ten for the Nittany Lions.

Allar is good, but not good enough. Penn State’s offense is 93rd in yards per play. Even with an elite offense, that’s not good enough to beat Michigan. This time next week Penn State will be outside the top 15.

No. 9 Ole Miss: Selling

Jaxson Dart is a lot better than Drew Allar, the offense isn’t the problem for Lane Kiffin’s team. He shifted the Rebels identity from a run-first mindset to a more balanced approach this year and Quinshon Judkins hasn’t been as good at running back, but Ole Miss is still 14th in points per game.

The other side of the ball will let them down against Carson Beck and Georgia on Saturday. The defense is 61st and 31st in yards per play. It’s a solid group, but not good enough to beat the back-to-back national champions.

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