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College Football Bowl Projections after Week 13

By Chris Peterson

Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receivers coach Ron Bellamy and interim head coach Sherrone Moore run up the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium.
Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receivers coach Ron Bellamy and interim head coach Sherrone Moore run up the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. /
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The regular season is in the books and here are our college football bowl projections, College Playoff projections, and New Year’s Six bowl projections updated after Week 13. 

In terms of the College Football Playoff, the picture got clearer on Saturday as Michigan knocked off Ohio State, while Kentucky ended any hopes Louisville had of crashing the playoff party.

Alabama and Florida State nearly suffered catastrophic losses, but rallied against their in-state rivals to win in the fourth quarter. Washington did the same, which allowed the Huskies to control their own destiny going into the Pac-12 title game.

A loss and they would have needed a win over Oregon, plus some help to make the College Football Playoff.

Looking ahead to championship week, here are our updated College Football Playoff projections, New Year’s Six Bowl projections, as well as our complete bowl projections for 2023-24.

Bowl Projections: College Football Playoff

National title game: Michigan vs. Georgia

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Oregon

Thoughts on College Football Playoff projections

Michigan needs to beat Iowa to be sure of a College Football Playoff berth, while Georgia, Florida State, and Washington all know they are in with a win.

Oregon can’t say the same thing in my opinion. The Ducks are projected to make the field here, but if Michigan, Georgia, and Florida State win, there will be just one spot left.

If Oregon knocks off Washington and Texas beats Oklahoma State, you have Oregon, Texas, and Ohio State in the mix as one-loss teams. We’ll see if the committee views Ohio State as better because then, conference titles don’t really matter — that’s just a tiebreaker.

The ranking on Tuesday will be essential. If Ohio State is ranked ahead of those teams, it won’t be a great sign, although Oregon can leap the Buckeyes with a win over Washington in my opinion, which would be much better than any victory by Ohio State.

An issue for Texas is that if Georgia beats Alabama, the Tide becomes a two-loss team and the Longhorns’ most impressive win, suddenly isn’t quite as impressive as Oregon beating unbeaten Washington on a neutral field.

So barring any major upsets, the winner of the Pac-12 title game should be in, along with Michigan, Georgia, and Florida State, assuming they hold serve in their league title games.

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