Few conferences match the weekly unpredictability of the Big 12. Just last season, Arizona State—picked to finish at the bottom of the conference—surged through the back half of their schedule and hoisted the championship trophy in Arlington. In 2025, the parity remains, fueled by what might be the deepest group of quarterbacks in the country and a growing list of programs capable of making a run. In this preview, I’ll break down the top contenders, one darkhorse to watch, predict every team’s final record, and reveal my projected Big 12 Championship matchup and eventual champion.
Predicting the outcomes of the Big 12 in 2025
The Darkhorse:
Utah Utes
Don’t expect Kyle Whittingham to stay down for long after Utah’s first sub-.500 season since 2013. The Utes still allowed the fewest points in the Big 12 last year (248) and return nearly the entire defense in 2025. Offensively, while the projected QB, RB and top three receivers are all transfers, the O-line remains a strength, headlined by 2026 first-round favorite Spencer Fano. Keep an eye on the connection between quarterback Devon Dampier and wide receiver Ryan Davis, as the former New Mexico standouts reunite in Salt Lake City.
Contenders
Arizona State
There's no better place to start but the defending conference champions, a squad that returns a dangerous offensive core led by QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordyn Tyson — sure to be one of the most explosive duos in the country. Despite losing Cam Skattebo, the Sun Devils maintain a strong running back room, and Army transfer Kanye Udoh will guide the new look group as he rushed for 1,117 yards in 2024. Defensively, Arizona State retains major continuity, with only one projected transfer starter (Purdue CB Kyndrich Breedlove). The secondary will be a major strength, led by the experienced safety tandem of Myles Rowser and Xavion Alford.
Baylor
The Bears bring back nearly their entire offense, as RB Bryson Washington and WR Josh Cameron are proven dynamic weapons. The receiving room is now bolstered by Alabama transfer Kobe Prentice in the slot, and Sawyer Robertson has the upside to emerge as the Big 12’s top quarterback by season's end. Baylor returns its leading linebacker (Keaton Thomas) and safety (Devyn Bobby), while most of last year’s secondary remains intact. Up front, two Tulane and two Oregon transfers are set to plug in as immediate starters, hoping to alleviate the pressure on the second level.
Kansas State
Avery Johnson returns to Manhattan with his electric dual-threat skillset, ready for an exciting junior campaign. Dylan Edwards will be solid out of the backfield, and Johnson will have plenty of targets, including 2024's leading receiver Jayce Brown and two key Power Five additions in Jaron Tibbs (Purdue) and Jerand Bradley (Boston College) on the outside. The front seven is returning much of last year's production, anchored by linebacker Austin Romaine, who could be the best at his position in the country this fall.
TCU
Last season, Josh Hoover had one of the best seasons that no one talked about, as his 3,949 passing yards were second in the conference only behind Shedeur Sanders. While they lost key receivers like Jack Bech and Savion Williams, TCU maintains Eric McAlister and bring in new weapons headlined by Jordan Dwyer (Idaho), and Joseph Manjack IV (Houston). With an unproven backfield, expect the Horned Frogs to lean heavily on the passing game again. The defense is sturdy across the board, with the secondary shaping up to be their strongest unit.
Texas Tech
Arguably the most exciting team to project in the conference, Texas Tech brings in perhaps the top transfer class in the country. The entire projected starting defensive line is made up of proven transfers, while Ben Roberts and Jacob Rodriguez—last year’s Big 12 leading tackler (127)—return on the second level. Offensively, the Red Raiders return a solid WR corps led by Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin and add USC transfer Quinten Joyner at running back. The biggest X-factor? Whether third-year starter Behren Morton can take another step at quarterback.
2025 Big 12 Record Predictions
1. Texas Tech (11-1), [8-1]
2. Arizona State (10-2), [7-2]
3. Kansas State (10-2), [7-2]
4. TCU (9-3), [6-3]
5. Baylor (9-3), [6-3]
6. Utah (8-4), [6-3]
7. BYU (8-4), [5-4]
8. Iowa State (8-4), [5-4]
9. Oklahoma State (7-5), [5-4]
10. Kansas (6-6), [4-5]
11. Colorado (5-7), [3-6]
12. Arizona (5-7), [3-7]
13. Cincinnati (4-8), [2-7]
14. UCF (4-8), [2-7]
15. West Virginia (4-8), [2-7]
16. Houston (3-9), [1-8]
Big 12 Championship Game: Texas Tech vs Arizona State
This game would be a rematch of their regular-season matchup on October 18 in Tempe—where I have Arizona State winning. However, I believe the chemistry of all the talent coming to Lubbock this fall finds its peak in early December. Texas Tech’s wide receiver group breaks through the Sun Devils’ talented secondary, while Quinten Joyner makes a major impact in his debut season. The stout defensive line begins to click, and the secondary holds just enough to slow down the explosive Leavitt–Tyson connection. In what could be a “first to 40” shootout, I’m picking the Red Raiders to avenge their regular-season loss and deny Arizona State a repeat Big 12 title.
Big 12 Champion: Texas Tech
By far the riskiest prediction I have for 2025, the Red Raiders would be the surprise of the season if they pull this off. But I believe their aggressive transfer portal strategy pays dividends, head coach Joey McGuire captures his first Big 12 title, and Texas Tech clinches a berth into the College Football Playoff.
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