The College Football Playoff picture is becoming clearer each week, but with only two weeks left in the regular season, there is still plenty to figure out. A few teams look like locks for the 12-team field, but several others still have work to do and currently find themselves on or around the bubble, a term commonly used with the NCAA basketball March Madness tournament but now relevant with the expanded College Football Playoff. Here are the three biggest bubble teams that could be vying for the final at-large bids by season’s end.
After starting the year looking like one of the best teams in the country, the Hurricanes slipped up in tough spots with losses to Louisville and SMU. Those setbacks have made it a longshot for them to reach the ACC title game but if they finish the season at 10-2, which includes a win over Notre Dame that has aged beautifully, they’ll certainly be in the conversation for one of the final at-large bids. Playing in a weak ACC doesn’t help, but if Miami does win out, it would put the playoff committee in an intriguing situation. They would likely have to compare Miami and Notre Dame, both at 10-2 and Miami having the head-to-head victory from Week 1, but the committee has consistently ranked the Irish higher since the release of the weekly rankings in early November.
It’s hard to imagine a 12-team playoff featuring only three Big Ten teams, but right now the conference’s chances of earning a fourth bid rely on USC finishing strong or Michigan beating Ohio State in the final week of the season. The Trojans have quietly stayed in the mix all year, and after their gutsy win over Iowa last week, they now find themselves on the bubble with a massive matchup in Eugene against Oregon ahead. Their two losses have come on the road against respectable opponents in Illinois and top-10 Notre Dame and we’ve seen flashes of how good this team can be, most notably in a dominant performance against Michigan. This bubble situation is pretty cut-and-dry: it’s win-and-in or lose-and-go-home for the Trojans this Saturday against Oregon.
Utah has looked dominant for most of the season, beating opponents by an average of 35.3 points in their victories. The problem is that none of those wins have come against top-25 teams, and in their two matchups against top teams Texas Tech and BYU, they not only lost, but didn’t look good doing it. The Utes will likely finish the season 10-2, which would almost certainly secure a spot if they were a team from the SEC or Big Ten. But coming from the Big 12 with a lacking resume makes their case far more complicated. Kyle Whittingham’s team will need some help from others to sneak into the field, but it’s far from impossible, which basically sums up what life is like on the bubble.