3 bold predictions for No. 12 Notre Dame versus No. 24 Navy

Taking the Over on 52.5 Total Points

Trying to predict this fixture from a betting standpoint, whether it’d be the over/under or the spread, seems rather tricky — as the numbers below would indicate. 

Seven of the past 10 occasions between Notre Dame and Navy have seen scoring totals exceed the 52.5 points that’s being laid out by the casino. However, two of the past three contests have actually gone under, which coincides with the arrival of Marcus Freeman — Freeman arrived in South Bend as the defensive coordinator for the Irish in 2021, and then later became head coach of the team ahead of the 2022 Fiesta Bowl.

With that said, I’m going to take the over in this matchup, thanks in large part to Navy’s offensive renaissance. Whilst still sticking to its run option DNA, the Midshipmen have become much more vertical in the passing game this year. As such, the Middies, led by quarterback Blake Horvath, have thrown for 11 touchdowns already this term, surpassing 2023’s full-season total. 

Courtesy of this downfield attack, which loosens up the opposing defenses, Navy’s ground game has benefited as well — Navy is accruing 80.2 yards more on the ground this year when compared to 2023. In total, the Middies are racking up 277.8 yards rushing per game, which ranks 3rd nationally, according to TeamRankings. 

Therefore, I suspect that Notre Dame, which actually boasts the nation’s 3rd ranked scoring defense, per TeamRankings, will have its challenges defending this modern version of the Midshipmen. In turn, the Irish will give up more points than they’re accustomed to, which will aid in the scoring total going over BetMGM’s 52.5 mark.