Absolute Chaos: How the SEC could end in an 8-way tie
Who plays in Atlanta, GA for the SEC Championship game in five weeks? Well, it could be anyone at this point.
The SEC has exactly zero undefeated teams remaining, but there are several one-loss teams vying for spots in the College Football Playoff and in the SEC Championship game, as well.
While many fans might be content with seeing their team miss out on the conference title game in favor of potentially getting to host a first-round playoff game, having a bye through the first-round and an extra week of rest and preparation is not something to be scoffed at.
Here's a look at the SEC standings heading into Week 11:
Team | Conference Record |
|---|---|
Georgia | 5-1 |
Texas A&M | 5-1 |
Tennessee | 4-1 |
Texas | 3-1 |
LSU | 3-1 |
Ole Miss | 3-2 |
Alabama | 3-2 |
Vanderbilt | 3-2 |
Missouri | 2-2 |
South Carolina | 3-3 |
Arkansas | 3-3 |
Florida | 2-3 |
Oklahoma | 1-4 |
Auburn | 1-5 |
Kentucky | 1-6 |
Mississippi State | 0-5 |
The crazy scenario that could end the SEC in an 8-way tie
With no undefeated teams remaining, the two bids in the conference championship game are likely to come down to tiebreakers of some sort. The question is if a two-loss team can get back into the mix, or if we're strictly talking about the five teams with one conference loss.
For those in favor of heavy chaos, one user on X pointed out a scenario that would have eight teams finish with a 6-2 record in conference, creating a jumbled mess in tiebreakers.
The scenario, as it is laid out, would involve Texas losing to Florida, Georgia losing to Ole Miss, LSU losing to Alabama, Tennessee losing to Georgia, and Texas A&M losing to Texas. While Texas losing to Florida might a stretch, all five of those games could go that way.
If…
— Robert Behrens (@rcb05) November 4, 2024
-Texas loses to Florida
-Georgia loses to Ole Miss
-LSU loses to Bama
-Tennessee loses to Georgia
-A&M loses to Texas
The regular would season end with Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M in an eight-way tie for first place in the SEC.
If this were to happen — and the teams held steady in their other matchups — we'd see an eight-way tie for first place among SEC teams, including Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M.
According to the user, this scenario would bring about an Alabama-LSU rematch in the SEC Championship. The tiebreaker, which comes back to conference opponent win percentage, would favor the Crimson Tide and Tigers, but with that many teams in the mix and with several other games to be played outside of the five listed above, anything could happen there.
What is more interesting than the SEC having to unravel this mess would be seeing what the College Football Playoff committee would do. In this scenario, you wouldn't have a single one-loss SEC team, and this is the type of chaos that could either bode well for the conference in getting several more at-large bids, or hurt the conference in seeing teams surpassed in the rankings down the stretch of the season.
It would be tough to justify leaving out any of the teams listed above if they have 10-2 records, but there's no way that eight teams from the SEC would be in the College Football Playoff. So, who would be out? In our estimation, you'd likely see Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas taken, with Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M on the outside-looking-in. In this scenario, it's important to keep in mind that the Aggies would be 9-3, and in that case, essentially eliminated.
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