Welcome to the most chaotic conference in college football, the ACC, where upsets should be expected and no team really looks that good in the grand scheme of college football. Week 11 was a wild one as three of the league’s top contenders fell while Georgia Tech and Pitt, both on bye weeks, emerged as the biggest winners of the weekend amid the chaos.
First Manny Diaz and Duke suffered an out-of-conference road loss to UConn. While that loss doesn’t directly affect the Blue Devils’ ACC title hopes, it certainly was not a great look. Then at night, Wake Forest survived in a 16-9 road win to knock off No. 14 Virginia, who was without quarterback Chandler Morris for most of the game due to injury. Meanwhile, Cal outlasted No. 15 Louisville 29-26 in overtime thanks to a 323 yard, two touchdown, and zero interception performance from Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele.
These results helped create a four-way tie atop the current ACC standings, with Georgia Tech, Virginia (whose loss to NC State earlier in the season did not count toward conference play), Pitt, and SMU all sitting at 5-1 in ACC play. Just behind them is Duke (4–1) and Louisville (4–2), and with how unpredictable this season has been, even Miami (FL) at 3–2 is still alive in the conference title race.
With an automatic playoff bid no longer looking like a possibility, only one ACC team is likely to make the College Football Playoff with the conference champion bid, meaning the next few weeks will be crucial.
While many teams have been struggling, Pitt has quietly been one of the most impressive teams in the country since making a change at quarterback and starting Mason Heintschel. After starting 2-2, including an ugly loss to West Virginia, the Panthers have rattled off five straight wins. They have arguably the most important stretch ahead in all of college football with remaining games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami.
Those final two ACC matchups could very well determine who earns a trip to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game and a potential playoff berth. We will also get a few other key matchups, such as Virginia vs Duke and Louisville vs SMU, that should help shake things out in the clustered top of the ACC standings.
The most intriguing team right now might be Duke, who sits at just 5-4 overall but 4-1 in conference play. The Blue Devils close the season with games against Virginia, North Carolina, and Wake Forest, which are all very winnable. If Duke wins out, they could sneak into the ACC Championship despite having four losses overall.
This would likely bring the ACC’s football tiebreaker rules into play, which can be found here. Those rules get quite confusing once you move past head-to-head results, and with how unpredictable this season has been, there’s really no reason to dig too deeply into potential tiebreaker scenarios just yet.
One thing for certain though, it’s shaping up to be an exciting finish to the ACC season with several teams still in the hunt for the conference title and a College Football Playoff spot.