Last season, the Big 12 was the wildest and most unpredictable conference in college football as the College Football Playoff front runner seemingly changed every week. Heading into the 2025 season, it looks like more of the same, with several teams looking capable of winning the conference championship and securing a College Football Playoff bid.
With the chaos last year, no Big 12 team finished the regular season with less than two losses, which certainly does not fare well in terms of making the playoff. Arizona State slid into the bracket landing at No. 12 in the final rankings, but claimed a first-round bye by winning the conference championship. While the conference will be hoping for more representation this time around, sportsbooks are suggesting it could be another unpredictable and one-bid year for the Big 12.
Let’s take a look at the odds for Big 12 teams to make the College Football Playoff this upcoming season.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Favorites
- Arizona State (+470)
- Kansas State (+490)
- Texas Tech (+490)
- Utah (+520)
- Baylor (+590)
It is a bit ironic to call any of these teams “favorites,” but these are the best odds, which shows how wide open the Big 12 has become since the departure of Texas and Oklahoma. Kenny Dillingham and Arizona State tout the best odds to return to the playoff, but have the third best odds to win the Big 12 Championship behind Kansas State and Utah.
Kansas State returns dangerous dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson, who will be looking to take a big step in his second season as the full-time starter, and is a guy I could see playing into the Heisman conversation. Utah, who is the only team in this group that has to play all four of the others, brought in Devon Dampier from New Mexico to lead an offense that has struggled in recent years when Cam Rising was unavailable.
Texas Tech at +490 is a team to keep an eye on based on the fact that they reportedly spent more money than any other team on this roster. The Red Raiders return quarterback Behren Morton, two of their top three leading receivers, their two leading tacklers, and the Red Raiders brought in one of the top transfer portal classes in college football. Baylor is another sneaky contender as they are projected to return seven starters on both sides from a team that ended the season winning six straight Big 12 games. We will get a good idea early where the Bears stand as they will be tested with two tough non-conference games against Auburn and SMU.
Contenders
- BYU (+680)
- TCU (+920)
- Iowa State (+980)
This is a strong group of contenders, all with good odds, who could easily find their way near the top of the Big 12 standings at the end of the season. Kalani Sitake always has BYU competitive and the Cougars have a very favorable conference schedule. TCU bounced back from a post-playoff hangover with a 9-4 season in 2024. The Horned Frogs bring back quarterback Josh Hoover who ranked 7th in the country in passing yards last season and is going into his third year as the starter. Iowa State is another team that was atop the conference standings for most of last year and they have their own veteran Big 12 QB in Rocco Becht. Keep an eye on a massive Week 0 matchup between the Cyclones and Kansas State that could cause an early shake-up in the Big 12 odds for these contenders and favorites.
Longshots
- Kansas (+1200)
- Cincinnati (+1600)
- Colorado (+1600)
- Houston (+1600)
The longshots of the Big 12 are not your typical longshots that you would see in say the Big Ten or SEC. Colorado will have the talent with head coach Deion Sanders, but no one really knows what the Buffs will be in the post Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter era. Kansas will have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Jalon Daniels which alone makes them a dangerous team. Cincinnati and Houston are both programs going into their second year in the Big 12 that had great success at the Group of Five level.
Bottom Tier
- UCF (+2500)
- Arizona (+3000)
- Oklahoma State (+3500)
- West Virginia (+3500)
This is where the bigger drop off occurs, but these are some teams with experienced coaches and players that could spoil others seasons. Arizona will have Noah Fifita at quarterback, but he will have to adjust in his first year without having Tetairoa McMillan. Mike Gundy is coming off just his second losing season in his 20 year tenure at Oklahoma State, while UCF and West Virginia welcomed back some familiar faces in Scott Frost and Rich Rodriguez who were both extremely successful in their past stints with the programs.