Back in December, I gave major props to the Baylor Bears for one simple reason: Nobody else had.
After back-to-back losing seasons, the Bears won eight games (six of which were consecutive) to finish their regular season strong after a heartbreaking 2-4 start, and no one seemed to notice—but I did, and today, I intend to double-down on it. Why? Because they have the circumstances to do even better in 2025. That’s quite impressive too, as you probably wouldn’t guess it by the quality of non-conference foes they kick things off with.
First up for Baylor are the Auburn Tigers who, despite not even going bowling last season, are poised to make a promising step in the right direction soon, especially on offense. After them comes a road trip to SMU, and with the Mustangs coming off of an ACC-contending/CFP-making run, them making for a troublesome road opener should need zero explanation.
However, Auburn’s potential doesn’t outweigh the difficulty of opening your season against a more-proven Power 4 squad in enemy territory. As for the Ponies, I don’t see them having any stronger of chances to beat Baylor in Dallas than the Bears do of beating Auburn in Waco. Therefore? These games are tough, but they are in no way “unwinnable.”
All that comes after them is a home game against Samford, and that should wrap up the non-conference slate with a bang (or at least it better). So just like that, we’re on to league play, where its manageability rides on two things: The teams you avoid, and the teams you host.
Baylor’s Big 12 haul is one of the luckiest breaks a team could ask for
Some of the Big 12’s mightiest powers last season were Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado. What do those guys have in common? They all beat Baylor in 2024, yet are nowhere to be seen on its agenda for 2025. That alone means the Bears have about as fortuitous of a draw as a member of their conference could possibly get, but that doesn’t mean they’re facing nine nobodies.
A few of the schools headlining their Big 12 gauntlet are Arizona State (the defending conference champs), Kansas State (a program on a four-year streak of eight wins or more) and Utah (one of the top names expected to thrust back into the national spotlight this fall, who recently beat the Bears by double-digits). Not ideal. But, what is ideal is the fact that now’s where the second part of the aforementioned manageability kicks in, as Baylor gets the privilege of welcoming each of those studs to McLane Stadium.
Tempe, Manhattan, Salt Lake City—none of them are considered “easy” places to visit, so Baylor having the advantage of staying put could very well be what switches that trio from 0-3 to something more like 2-1.
“Okay, no team gets all the luck; surely the Big 12 has some nightmarish road games in store for the Bears, right?” No, they really don’t. The only clear threat in that pool is TCU, their top rival that’s fresh off a rejuvenating run of its own, having just gone 9-4 after a 5-7 finish in 2023. The Horned Frogs aren’t insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination though, as not only did Baylor just beat them in November, but the rivalry between the schools is often (and historically) tight.
Now then, here’s what we got: The Baylor Bears just won eight games, and have an endurable start to their 2025 journey before being hit with a Big 12 that, realistically, couldn’t be easier. Yeah, if they don’t continue to climb this year, I can’t see how anyone else does.