This college football season has been full of unexpected twists and turns, but it’s still shocking how unimportant a Week 10 matchup between preseason No. 2 Penn State and preseason No. 3 Ohio State is. The Nittany Lions still don’t have a win against a Power 4 opponent and are three-score underdogs on the road under interim head coach Terry Smith.
That’s not the only rivalry matchup that’s lost quite a bit of its preseason pomp and circumstance. The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party was expected to have major College Football Playoff implications for both teams, with preseason No. 5 Georgia and preseason No. 15 Florida. The Dawgs have held serve at No. 5 for Week 10, but the Gators have moved on from Billy Napier after a 3-4 start.
Just because those games are as highly anticipated as we expected doesn’t mean we can’t make some money betting on them. And just because those games lost their luster doesn’t mean we don’t have other big-time matchups like No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas. That’s where we’ll start this Week 10 edition of best bets.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Vanderbilt vs. Texas UNDER 47 (-110)
Sometimes football can be simple. Texas cannot block Vanderbilt’s defensive line, and Vanderbilt can’t block Texas’s defensive line. The Longhorns have had so many issues up front all season that whether it’s Arch Manning or Matthew Caldwell at quarterback, it won’t really matter. Manning is the better option, but both will be under constant duress.
Vanderbilt, while it has the advantage at quarterback, will have a tough time exploiting it. Missouri blitzed Diego Pavia twice in Week 9, yet pressured him on 37.5 percent of his dropbacks. On those nine pressured dropbacks, Pavia went 1-for-6 for 12 yards with two sacks and one scramble.
2. Penn State team total UNDER 12.5 (-106) vs. Ohio State
Only Illinois has scored more than 10 points on Ohio State’s defense this season, and I’m going to give the edge to fifth-year senior Luke Altmyer, in his third year as the starter for the Illini, at home, over redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer, making his second-career start, in Columbus.
Penn State averaged 4.21 yards per play with 3.46 yards per dropback and a five percent explosive play rate in a 25-24 loss to Iowa in Week 8 with Grunkemeyer at the controls. He’s too inexperienced for all the coverage rotations and disguises that Matt Patricia has used at Ohio State, the same stuff that confounded Arch Manning in Week 1.
3. Florida team total OVER 20.5 (-120)
The Georgia defense of 2025 is not the Georgia defense that we’ve grown accustomed to during the Kirby Smart era in Athens. The Dawgs rank 66th in defensive success rate, 94th in net EPA/play, and 94th in EPA/pass.
Georgia just doesn’t have a pass-rush to disrupt drives and, crucially for this matchup, opponents face an average third-down distance of 5.91 yards, ranking 134th in the FBS. That will be massive for DJ Lagway and the Gators, who rank 131st in third-down success rate. Lagway is still an immensely talented thrower, and the more opportunities he has to hit the deep shot, the worse it is for Georgia. The team total is my favorite bet, but I may even sprinkle the Florida moneyline in this one.
4. Virginia vs. Cal +5.5 (-106)
Cal is coming off a loss to Virginia Tech, so trusting the Golden Bears isn’t the easiest thing in the world. Still, as a home underdog with Virginia travelling across the country, I’ll ride with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Beyond the travel aspect, Virginia is just an absurdly lucky team, and eventually that always runs out. Timing it can be the hard part, but I’ll take my shot here. Four teams in the country have three wins with a negative success rate in the game: Troy, Stanford, Georgia Tech, and, you guessed it, Virginia.
5. Wake Forest +10.5 (-112) vs. Florida State
Let’s start with a simple question: What has Florida State done to deserve being a 10.5-point favorite over any ACC team? The Seminoles haven’t won an ACC game since September 21, 2024, against Cal. Mike Norvell’s team is also 3-6-1 against the spread as a favorite since the start of last season.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, has won three straight after beating SMU 13-12 a week ago and is 5-2 against the spread this season. Jake Dickert is a really good football coach, and though his offense struggles, his defense is 7th in the country in NET EPA/drive, and second in passing success rate. With Tommy Castellanos banged up, Florida State will have to throw the ball more, and that’s troublesome.
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