This has been a season of chaos, and while the ACC collapsed in on itself like a dying star last week, only one top 12 team lost, and it was No. 7 BYU falling to No. 8 Texas Tech. Indiana and Oregon avoided major upsets, and the second week of the College Football Playoff Rankings looked pretty similar to the first.
This week may or may not bring upsets, but with four ranked-on-ranked matchups and two top-12 bouts in the SEC, Week 12 has the chance to bring a major CFP shakeup. We’re taking a few of those ranked-on-ranked matchups head-on, starting in my hometown of Pittsburgh, PA, where the Pitt Panthers are hosting College Gameday for the first time since 2005.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Notre Dame -12.5 (-108) vs. Pitt
Mason Heintschel and Pitt have been a nice story, but their five-game winning streak has come against Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, NC State, and Stanford, not exactly murderers’ row. Heintschel, though he’s been one of the best stories in college football this season, but he’s at just 4.57 yards per dropback with an obscenely high scramble rate at 11 percent and 11 turnover-worthy plays to just 10 big-time throws.
Heintschel is clearly an upgrade over Eli Holstein, who was never a playable quarterback, even when he was having success last season. However, he’s still young and prone to making mistakes. CJ Carr, on the other side, is a lethal downfield thrower who will carry the Notre Dame offense against a Pitt run defense that ranks No. 3 in the country by success rate.
2. South Carolina team total UNDER 14.5 (-115) vs. Texas A&M
Shane Beamer’s team might have an NFL quarterback, but LaNorris Sellers hasn’t been able to save the South Carolina offense this season. Surprisingly, for a mobile quarterback who should help activate the run game, the struggles have predominantly been on early downs, ranking 125th in early down EPA/play and, crucially for this matchup, 131st in average third-down distance.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, is one of the best late-down defenses in the country, facing an average distance of 9.17 yards, the longest in the country, and allowing a late-down success rate of 32.8 percent. Mike Elko has been excellent at drawing up exotic pressure packages in obvious passing situations, and with Sellers’ 25.4 percent pressure-to-sack rate, the Gamecocks will constantly find themselves behind the sticks.
3. Oklahoma vs. Alabama UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Alabama unders have been good business most of the season. Five of Alabama’s last six games have gone to the under, and without a reliable run game, the Crimson Tide tends to spend much of the second half spinning their wheels after building a lead.
There is reason to be concerned about Oklahoma’s defense. Once considered one of the best units in the country, it has allowed 61 points across the last two games, including a high-scoring win over Tennessee, which included an Oklahoma defensive touchdown. However, those two matchups came against two of the best quarterbacks in the SEC against the blitz, and for all of Ty Simpson’s strengths, he ranks 10th in the conference in yards per attempt against the blitz and has the highest turnover-worthy play rate.
If those turnovers come to fruition, it could lead to short fields and points, with both offenses ranking in the top 15 in red zone touchdown percentage, but I’ll trust the trends with Bama unders and an offense averaging just 64.0 plays per game over its last three.
4. New Mexico State vs. Tennessee -39.5 (-110)
Since Josh Heupel took over in 2021, Tennessee is 17-6 against the spread vs. non-conference opponents, and his team’s average margin over the spread of +8.3 points is the second best in the country over that stretch.
His veer-and-shoot offense that struggles to take the foot off the gas, Heupel can typically name his number against a Group of Six team at Neyland Stadium. That number is going to be well over 50 points in this one because the Volunteers need some serious style points to get back into the College Football Playoff picture before a Week 14 matchup with Vanderbilt.
5. Texas vs. Georgia OVER 49.5 (-110)
These are two teams that rely pretty heavily on yards after the catch, both averaging around 7.0 yards after the catch per reception this season, and two of the better tackling defenses in the country, so I could be walking into a bear trap. Still, I like the over in this game.
Texas’s offense has been rounding into form recently, and some of that has to do with playing inferior athletes in Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, but I think that more of the success stems from Arch Manning’s improved play. He’s been hyper-efficient when kept clean this season, which, with an awful offensive line, has been often, but Georgia has one of the worst pass rushes in the country. It’s a real stoppable force vs. movable object matchup, and I think Manning will have a fair amount of time.
Without a four-man rush generating any pressure this season, Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann have been forced to blitz more, and Manning has been at his best against the blitz, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns to two interceptions. I expect Manning to play well in Athens, and this to turn into another shootout for the Dawgs.
Georgia is 2-1 to the over vs. ranked opponents this year, but those three games still average 15.7 points more than the Vegas total.
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