The biggest game of Week 13 is taking place up in Eugene, a Big Ten showdown between USC and Oregon, likely for an at-large bid into the CFP. So, while he doesn’t have to travel multiple time zones and make the trip east of the Rockies, Lincoln Riley’s travel troubles might continue.
USC is 1-3 against the spread as the road team this year and 2-7 since joining the Big Ten, but this Saturday, it may not be as simple as just fading the Trojans as a 10-point underdog to the Ducks.
Let’s jump into the full slate of Week 13 Best Bets, including my play for USC/Oregon.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Louisville vs. SMU -2.5 (-115)
Louisville has a top pass defense and the best pass rush in the ACC, so the Cardinals could slow down Kevin Jennings in this one, but I still have significantly more faith in Jennings to problem-solve than Miller Moss. And the Louisville offense will be on Moss’s soldiers.
The Cardinals are expected to be without top running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown for this matchup with the No. 4 defense by EPA/rush in the country. SMU is still in the mix for the ACC Title Game, while Louisville’s season has crumbled with back-to-back losses. I don’t see Jeff Brohm getting this turned around on the road.
2. No. 22 Missouri +7 (-110) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma
This line has been moving in Missouri’s direction throughout the week, partially due to the growing possibility that quarterback Beau Pribula returns from his gruesome leg injury as he was upgraded to questionable on Friday, but also because of doubts about the Oklahoma offense.
There’s a narrative that since John Mateer has gotten healthier from his hand injury, he’s returning to his early-season form. That’s just not the reality. Oklahoma doesn’t trust Mateer to protect the ball, and without a reliable run game, that hyper-conservative approach resulted in a 33 percent success rate against Alabama. Pribula or not, Missouri will struggle to move the ball, but Ahmad Hardy should be able to hit enough big runs to keep this close.
3. No. 15 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon UNDER 59.5 (-110)
Oregon has the No. 2 passing defense in the country by EPA/dropback. Is that a result of Tosh Lupoi’s concerted effort to limit negative plays and a defensive line that can win with a four-man rush, or a schedule that has featured just two passing offenses inside the top 60 in the FBS by EPA/dropback? It’s easy to say we’ll find out this week with USC coming to town, but Jayden Maiava on the road is a different quarterback than Jayden Maiava in LA.
Away from the Coliseum, Maiava’s completion percentage drops from 74.5 percent to 57.4 percent, his yards per attempt fall from 10.7 to 8.2, and he has as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns. With Oregon leaning heavily into its run game since Dakorien Moore has been out with an injury, the clock will be running, so I like the under in the biggest game of the weekend.
4. Arkansas +8.5 (-106) vs. No. 17 Texas
Arkansas is 0-6 in SEC play and 2-8 overall. Yet, the Razorbacks’ point differential this season is +18. Their six SEC losses have come by an average of 4.2 points. Meanwhile, Texas has gone to overtime with Kentucky and Mississippi State this season, and is a week removed from its College Football Playoff hopes slipping away in Athens.
The Arkansas defense is a problem, but with such an elite offense, ranking No. 1 in the country in rushing success rate, the Razorbacks are 60th by Net EPA/Drive, while Texas is at 44th. These teams are much closer from a statistical profile standpoint than the records would indicate, so I’ll take the underdog to cover 8.5.
5. Kansas State vs. Utah -17.5 (+100)
This season, Utah is 4-1 against the spread in Salt Lake City and is outdoing the spread by an average of 11.6 points per game. Since their loss to BYU, the Utes have ripped off three-straight dominant performances, beating Colorado 53-7, downing Cincinnati 45-14, and bullying Baylor 55-28. The Utes look like a terrifying team coming down the stretch, and they’ll need some serious style points to stay in the CFP mix.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets and see a full betting record HERE