In the NFL -- you know, that other football league that began on Thursday night -- there has been a trend of offenses getting off to bad starts early in the season because fewer and fewer starters are playing in the preseason. Well, in college football, there is no preseason, and it looked that way in Week 1. So far this year, the under is 83-61, and games have finished an average of 5.07 points below the Vegas total.
Player movement in the transfer portal could be to blame, as could the bevy of first-time starting quarterbacks taking over College Football Playoff contenders as the Covid-era sixth and seventh-year starters finally age out of the sport. However, defensive gameplanning also plays a factor. Again, like the NFL, defensive play-callers have gotten wise to the analytical advantages of playing two-high safeties to limit explosive plays in the passing game.
Now, to be clear, the oddsmakers in Vegas know this as well, so an adjustment is coming as offenses round into shape. Still, I have two unders I love on my Week 2 card, and I’ve snuck in an over into my five best bets. Let’s start with the game of the week.
1. No. 15 Michigan vs No. 18 Oklahoma: Under 22 (1st half) -110
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
For our first bet of Week 2, we head to the slate’s marquee matchup in Norman, Oklahoma, between two of the most intriguing quarterbacks in the country. John Mateer ended with big numbers in his Sooners debut against Illinois State, throwing for three touchdowns and running for one more.
But that doesn’t dispel any concerns I have about the Washington State transfer because he’s always been prolific against lesser competition. Squaring off against Wink Martindale’s Michigan defense, though it’ll be without top edge rusher Jaishawn Barham in the first half, will be a different story.
As for the other side, Bryce Underwood looked fantastic in his first start last week against New Mexico. He made every throw you could want to see from a true freshman, and Michigan’s $11 million deal looks like money well spent. Still, he’s a true freshman QB facing a Brent Venables defense on the road in his second career start. That’s a lot to ask because Venables, as a head coach or defensive coordinator, is 21-5 against true freshman QBs, and has held their offenses to 20.2 points per game. Things may pick up in the second half, so I’ll stick with the first half under.
2. No. 11 Illinois vs Duke: Under 24.5 (1st half) -128
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
I got this number with a little bit of juice at FanDuel Sportsbook, but it’s worth shopping around before kickoff on Saturday. The analysis here, for another first half under, is fairly simple. Duke wants to play fast and throw the ball all over the yard with Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah. However, last week, Mensah was pressured on nearly 20 percent of his dropbacks by Elon, and the Blue Devils offense didn’t find its stride until late, pouring it on with a 21-point fourth quarter.
Illinois will generate tons of pressure on Mensah early, and Brett Bielema will refuse to play the game on Duke’s terms. He has a quarterback he trusts in Luke Altmyer, but with turnover at receiver, the strength of his offense is the offensive line, just like he likes it. Illinois is going to slow the pace of this one and try to win it in the trenches. I’m confident that his team can dictate terms for a half, but if you asked me to make a play on the full game, I might be taking Duke with the points at home.
3. Kennesaw State vs No. 23 Indiana -35.5 (-105)
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Last week, Curt Cignetti, who loves to run up the score against cupcake opponents, managed just a 27-14 victory over Old Dominion. That led to a three-spot drop in the AP Poll, and will have the Hoosiers motivated to cover this massive spread. There is also a case to be made that Indiana left quite a few points out on the field last week.
Old Dominion pulled off an impressive goalline stand to end Indiana’s first drive on downs. Then on the very next drive, the Hoosiers lost a fumble deep in ODU territory. They ended the first half with a missed 52-yard field goal. Add in another fourth-and-goal stop in the fourth quarter, and that’s at least 12 points, if not much more. Indiana converted on just 57 percent of its red zone trips (66th in the country) after finishing first last season at 96.5 percent.
4. No. 20 Ole Miss -8.5 (-110) vs Kentucky
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
There were a few bad losses on Lane Kiffin’s resume last season, but the worst was a 20-17 defeat in Lexington. Kentucky was not a good football team last year, finishing 4-8 and 1-7 in SEC play. However, Mark Stoops’s team did have a good defensive line, which pressured Jaxson Dart on 38.9 percent of his dropbacks and sacked him four times. Ole Miss ran for 3.2 yards per play.
That defensive line, led by Deone Walker, who had six pressures and two sacks, is mostly gone. The Rebels should keep Dart’s replacement, Austin Simmons, clean at home on Saturday, and while their defense isn’t quite as strong as last season’s unit, either, they’re plenty good enough to limit Zach Calzada and an uninspiring Kentucky offense.
5. UCLA vs UNLV: Over 55.5 (-110)
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
A Dan Mullen-coached team in many things, but capable of stopping even an average offense consistently, it is not. UNLV put on a defensive disaster class at home in Week 0 against Idaho State, with a patchwork unit of transfers that looked like they had never met before kickoff. The Rebels played better against Sam Houston last week, allowing just 21 points, but UCLA is a step up in competition.
Nico Iamaleava was not good in his Bruins debut against Utah. But in my opinion, Utah is one of the 10 best teams in the country and the clear Big 12 favorite. Kyle Whittingham’s defense pressured Nico on 19 of his 32 dropbacks and was more than partially responsible for the former Tennessee Volunteers’ struggles. UNLV will give Nico plenty of time to get more comfortable in the passing game and, so far, is allowing 0.18 EPA/carry, which is 118th of 136 teams in the country.
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