College football continues to be full of surprises. Heading into Week 7, Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon had separated themselves as the clear top three contenders for the national title, or so we thought.
Last Saturday, Indiana took the trip out to Eugene and handled the Ducks, while Oregon’s biggest win took another hit as Penn State lost to Northwestern and fired James Franklin. Now the Hoosiers suddenly belong in the title discussion, one that may not be as cut-and-dry as it once appeared.
Where will the surprises come from this week? Hopefully not any of these five games that I’m betting, or any of the others that will be featured on my full Saturday betting card. Let’s dive right in because we have an early start on Friday night to get the vibes high heading into the weekend.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Louisville team total UNDER 17.5 (-115) vs. Miami (Friday night)
Miami has the best defensive line in the country, and that’s really bad news for Louisville. The Cardinals' backfield duo, which was supposed to be dynamic, has spent that season banged up, and Jeff Brohm’s offense is 84th in rushing success rate. So, it will be up to Miller Moss to lead Louisville down the field on the Hurricanes, and I don’t think he can do it.
Louisville’s offensive line is allowing pressure on 32 percent of Moss’s dropbacks, and on those snaps, he’s averaging 4.1 yards per attempt with six turnover-worthy plays to just two big-time throws. Moss is being sacked on 21 percent of his pressured dropbacks.
Reuben Bain and Akeem Mesidor will dominate Louisville’s front, and without a reliable run game to slow their progress, they’ll wreck the game.
2. Ole Miss 1st half +3.5 (+100) vs Georgia
Lane Kiffin has been preparing for this matchup against Georgia for weeks. Want to know how I know this? It’s not the fat jokes that he lobbed Kirby Smart’s way in the media this week. He said as much on Pardon My Take last week, and followed that up by nearly losing to Washington State 24-21.
Kiffin will have his team ready for the first half in Athens, and that’s when Georgia is vulnerable. The Bulldogs have trailed at halftime in three of their four SEC games, with Kentucky as the lone exception. Mike Bobo’s offense hasn’t exactly been the problem, averaging 15.8 points in the first half and 16.0 after the intermission. It’s been Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann’s defense that has gotten off to the slow starts.
Georgia is allowing 12.4 points in the first half overall, ranking 58th in the country, and 15.5 first-half points in SEC play. After Smart and his staff have time to make some adjustments, they’re holding all opponents to 6.2 points in the second half, and conference opponents have managed 5.0 second-half points per game.
3. UNLV +12.5 (-110) vs Boise State
This spread was bigger earlier in the week, so I grabbed some +13.0, but even 12.5 is far too big a number for this matchup on the Smurf Turf in Boise. Yes, UNLV’s defense is a problem. Dan Mullen’s team ranks 122nd in the country in defensive success rate and 133rd against the run. However, they still rank one spot ahead of Boise State in Net EPA/drive.
That doesn’t just signal good UNLV’s offense has been, it’s also a reflection of the Broncos’ defensive issues. By success rate, Boise State is 22nd, but the Broncos are allowing an 11.4 percent explosive play-rate, one of the worst in the country. Mullen’s Rebels will turn this into a shootout, and I don’t trust Maddux Madsen to cover a two-score spread in a high-scoring game.
4. Texas Tech -7 (-110) vs. Arizona State
Sam Leavitt is back, but he doesn’t solve all of Arizona State’s issues. The Sun Devils still have a leaky offensive line in front of him, and it’s not a certainty that one of the best scramblers in the country will be 100 percent as a runner after missing last week’s drubbing at the hands of Utah.
If Miami’s defensive line isn’t the best in the country, then the distinction belongs to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders dominated Utah’s offensive line a few weeks back, and if it can do that to a line with two potential first-round picks, what is it going to do on Saturday night in Tempe?
Behren Morton seems likely to play for the Red Raiders, but even if he misses the game, I still think Texas Tech is a touchdown better than every team in the Big 12 with Will Hammond at QB.
5. Missouri vs Auburn UNDER 43.5 (+100)
Typically, I bet totals based on pace, but Missouri went under with Alabama last week, despite being one of the highest-paced teams in the country this season. Mizzou ran just 58 plays against Alabama, and I think Auburn can slow Eli Drinkwitz’s team down in a similar fashion.
Auburn’s season and Hugh Freeze’s tenure are both on the brink, but the roster Freeze constructed around Jackson Arnold is SEC Championship-caliber. Auburn’s defense is second in the country in rushing success rate and first in EPA/rush. Freeze’s Tigers will slow Ahmad Hardy and Beau Pribula, but Arnold will take too many sacks and make too many mistakes to make them pay.
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