Seven programs are already closing out the season with interim head coaches, and we could have a few more coaching changes before the 2025 season is through. Auburn, Florida State, and Wisconsin are being monitored, but with another loss, LSU head coach Brian Kelly’s seat could be the hottest. Enter, the Texas A&M Aggies.
At 7-0, Mike Elko’s team is up to No. 3 in the country, and possibly only a win or two away from locking up a spot in this year’s College Football Playoff. A&M is a road favorite in Death Valley on Saturday night, so with a broken LSU offensive line and an underperforming QB, we might see how much home-field advantage is really worth in Baton Rouge.
The Aggies aren’t the only team playing with major CFP implications, but those aren’t the only games we’re focused on for our best bets this week. Sure, Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss is important, but you can make just as much money betting on Rutgers and Purdue. So, let’s jump into the good, the bad, and the Big 12 of College Football Week 9.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma UNDER 54.5 (-110)
The under is 7-0 in Oklahoma games this season and for good reason. Defensively, the Sooners rank first in success rate, Net EPA/play, Net EPA/drive, EPA/pass, available yards percentage, and late-down success rate. The defensive line is dominant, and Brent Venables has schemed up constant pressure on opposing QBs.
However, the defense isn’t the only reason that Oklahoma’s games have all gone to the under. OU’s offensive line is questionable, and with a quarterback who isn’t comfortable playing in structure or getting the ball out quickly, the unit is boom-or-bust. Ole Miss is susceptible on the ground, ranking 125th nationally in EPA/rush, but the Sooners don’t have a single running back generating positive EPA/carry.
2. Rutgers vs. Purdue Team Total OVER 28.5 (-104)
Purdue has one of the worst passing defenses in the country, ranking 126th at 0.24 EPA/pass, and yet Rutgers has managed to be significantly worse, ranking 132nd at 0.31 EPA/pass. For more context, they’re making every quarterback in the country as efficient as Dante Moore, whom they faced last week and averaged 13.96 yards/dropback in a 56-10 Oregon win.
Rutgers simply doesn’t have the bodies on defense to stop Big Ten teams, even ones like Purdue, which just got shut out by Northwestern in Week 8. Purdue is also one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the country. I don’t hate the full-game over either, but I feel most comfortable fading the Rutgers defense.
3. Alabama vs. South Carolina UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Ty Simpson is leading one of the best offenses in the country and has looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate, throwing darts all over the field to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. Yet, the under is 0-4 in the Crimson Tide’s four games against SEC opponents. Now, the Tide are in the ultimate letdown spot, playing an awful South Carolina team in Columbia after becoming the first team in SEC history to win four consecutive conference games all against ranked opponents.
South Carolina, for its part, ranks 118th nationally in Net EPA/drive and 132nd in rushing success rate, the real weakness of this Alabama defense. And, part of the Tide’s stretch of unders has been stingy red zone defense, turning over Diego Pavia inside the 20-yard line twice in a game that should have gone over. The Gamecocks rank 115th in the FBS in red zone touchdown percentage.
4. Baylor vs. Cincinnati -3.5 (-110)
Speaking of red zone touchdown percentage, Cincinnati ranks eighth-best in the FBS at 78.57 percent, and the Bearcats have quietly been one of the best offenses in the country.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby just does not take negative plays. His pressure-to-sack ratio is the best in the country at 3.6 percent, and he’s thrown just one interception. He’ll keep Cincinnati on schedule offensively, while Sawyer Robertson, on the other side, has to play hero ball to atone for Baylor’s lack of a run game. Baylor is 1-6 against the spread, and Cincinnati is 5-2, so I don’t mind laying more than a field goal at Nippert Stadium.
5. Texas A&M -2.5 (-110) vs. LSU
LSU is not a good football team. They were underdogs to Vanderbilt last week for good reason, and now Texas A&M can go into Death Valley and get this team out of my face. Like Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC, LSU’s offensive line is untenably bad, and Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t shown an ability to overcome it.
Enter Cashius Howell. The Texas A&M edge rusher ranks sixth in the country with 8.0 sacks, 10th with 32 QB pressures, and fifth with a pass-rush win rate of 26.4 percent. It’s going to be a long night for Nussmeier in Death Valley, and with a win, the Aggies will write their spot in the College Football Playoff in pen.
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