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Complete SEC Championship tiebreaker scenarios after wild Week 12

The SEC is set up for some potential chaos heading into the final two weeks of the regular season in determining its championship bids.

By Andrew Boardwine

Mercer v Alabama
Mercer v Alabama / Brandon Sumrall/GettyImages
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The SEC Championship race is heating up as the 2024 season enters its final stretch.

With several teams still in contention for a trip to Atlanta on December 7, here's a breakdown of what each contender needs to do to secure a spot in the SEC title game.

Key Contenders and Their Paths

  1. Texas Longhorns (5-1 SEC, 9-1 Overall) The Longhorns are sitting in the driver's seat. With games against Kentucky and Texas A&M remaining, Texas controls its fate. Wins in both matchups will punch their ticket to Atlanta. However, a slip-up could open the door for challengers, as their loss to Georgia earlier complicates tiebreaker scenarios.
  2. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1 SEC, 8-2 Overall) The Aggies are in a similar position to Texas: win, and they’re in. They face Auburn and Texas in two critical matchups. While a win over Texas secures their place in the SEC Championship, a loss would leave their fate in the hands of tiebreaker math.
  3. Georgia Bulldogs (6-2 SEC, 8-2 Overall) With conference play complete, Georgia is in wait-and-see mode. They’ve beaten both Tennessee and Texas but suffered losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia’s playoff hopes remain alive thanks to their overall resume, but they need several results to fall their way to reach the SEC title game.
  4. Tennessee Volunteers (5-2 SEC, 8-2 Overall) Tennessee has two games left against UTEP and Vanderbilt, both of which they are favored to win. While victories are essential, they also need losses by other teams to climb into contention. Their head-to-head win over Alabama keeps them in the mix.
  5. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-2 SEC, 8-2 Overall) Alabama’s destiny hinges on winning their remaining games against Oklahoma and Auburn. Despite earlier losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, the Tide’s victories over Georgia and LSU provide a crucial advantage in certain tiebreaker situations.
  6. Ole Miss Rebels (4-2 SEC, 8-2 Overall) Ole Miss faces Florida and Mississippi State, needing wins and chaos elsewhere to remain in contention. Losses to Kentucky and LSU create significant obstacles for their path to Atlanta.

The SEC Tiebreaker Breakdown

If teams finish with identical conference records:

  1. Head-to-head results between the tied teams.
  2. Record against common SEC opponents.
  3. Performance against the highest-ranked common opponent in the standings.
  4. Cumulative winning percentages of all opponents faced in conference play.
  5. Point differential (capped at a certain margin) against SEC teams.
  6. A random draw if all else fails.

SEC Championship Scenarios to Watch

If Texas Wins Out

If Texas defeats Kentucky and Texas A&M, they’ll clinch a spot in the SEC Championship. This scenario would likely create a logjam of two-loss teams for the second spot. Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee could all be in play depending on how their final games unfold.

If Texas A&M Beats Texas

A victory for Texas A&M over Texas would give the Aggies control. Meanwhile, Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee would find themselves in a fight for the second spot, with head-to-head records playing a pivotal role.

If Alabama Wins Out

Two more wins for Alabama would vault them into contention, especially if Texas falters. Their head-to-head victories over Georgia and LSU would bolster their case in any multi-team tie scenario.

Tennessee’s Path

Tennessee needs a flawless finish and some help from other results to make the championship game. A win over Vanderbilt will keep them alive, but tiebreakers will decide their fate.

Why the Texas vs. Texas A&M Game Matters Most

The November 30 showdown between Texas and Texas A&M is shaping up to be the game of the year in the SEC. Both teams control their paths, making it a de facto elimination game. The ripple effects of its outcome will likely determine which team faces off against the SEC East representative in Atlanta.

It's about 99.9% likely at this point that we won't know either SEC Championship team until this game concludes.

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