One of the most controversial models in college football is back, and it has fans talking.
Let’s start with the basics: ESPN’s SP+ isn’t some crystal ball. It’s a data-driven formula that weighs returning production, recent recruiting success, and past team performance. That’s great in theory… until the results come out and leave entire fanbases fuming.
This time around? It has Ohio State, not just in the playoff, but back on top as the No. 1 overall seed. After their wild championship run as an 8-seed last year, the Buckeyes are apparently the team to beat heading into the 2025-26 campaign. They’re followed by Alabama, Clemson, and Kansas State as the remaining top-four seeds, all set to earn a first-round bye under the 12-team playoff format.
Yep—Kansas State as the Big 12 representative.
Boise State, sitting at No. 31 in the SP+ rankings, grabs the final guaranteed conference champion slot—earning that Group of Five bid. They might not stack up talent-wise with the big dogs, but per the rules, they’re in.
The remaining seven at-large bids are where things really heat up. Here’s how ESPN sees them:
- Penn State
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- Oregon
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
So, in total, the Big Ten gets three teams. The SEC? Five. That’s right—nearly half of the playoff field would come from the Southeastern Conference, and that’s without LSU or Florida cracking the bracket.
Here's how the final seeding shakes out in ESPN’s model:
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Kansas State
- Penn State
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- Oregon
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
- Boise State
From a structure standpoint, the top four seeds get byes. That would leave some very interesting first-round campus games:
- (5) Penn State vs. (12) Boise State
- (6) Georgia vs. (11) Ole Miss
- (7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Tennessee
- (8) Oregon vs. (9) Texas
Yes, that would mean Georgia and Ole Miss—two teams from the same conference—would be squaring off in a playoff game before they even reach the quarterfinals.
The SP+ model is just a projection, of course. It doesn’t account for a lot of things, but it does reveal how ESPN’s analytics view the hierarchy of the sport heading into 2025—and it’s hard to ignore how SEC-heavy the outcome is. Whether or not you think that's biased or not — we'll let you decide — but it's clear that the narrative is already shaping up for the SEC to get more representation than last season.