With Week 0 officially upon us, college football is back!
In the buildup to the season, every year many of us wait with bated breath for the release of the AP Preseason Poll. Who will crack the Top 25? Which teams will get snubbed? Who’s in the Top 10 — and where? And, of course, who’s No. 1?
Well, with 1,672 points — including 40 first-place votes — it’s the Ohio State Buckeyes checking in as the nation’s No. 1 team to begin the 2026 college football season.
It’s clear the voting media believes the Buckeyes are the nation’s best, but are they even the best team in the Big Ten?
That’s the question worth asking — and one that deserves a closer look.
The AP Preseason Poll Is Still a Guessing Game
For starters, the AP Preseason Poll often proves inaccurate by season’s end.
Just look at last year, when three preseason Top-10 teams — No. 2 Penn State, No. 4 Clemson, and No. 9 LSU — finished the season unranked.
Why is that the case?
There’s a multitude of factors, probably more than I could list, but some of the obvious ones begin with the fact that talent on paper doesn’t always translate to wins — especially in this era of mega-conferences.
Schedules are unbalanced. Dozens upon dozens of fresh faces may arrive at a given school, potentially stunting a team’s development due to a lack of cohesion among coaches, players, and the playbook. Then, of course, there are voters’ biases toward certain players, teams, and conferences — whether for or against.
After all, these are humans voting, not computers.
We had computers once as part of the BCS, and people complained until change arrived. Those computers, however, were emotionless. They didn’t utilize the “eye test.” They simply crunched the numbers that teams actually produced on the field of play.
But I digress.
How does any of this pertain to Ohio State?
Well, while the Buckeyes undoubtedly have an elite roster and coaching staff, their schedule is certainly a problem — as is the competition within the Big Ten.
Ohio State’s 2026 Schedule Is a Minefield
According to the AP Poll, Ohio State is set to face an astounding six ranked opponents this season: No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Indiana, No. 14 USC, No. 16 Michigan, and No. 22 Iowa.
To make matters worse, four of those six games — Texas, Indiana, USC, and Iowa — are on the road.
Compounding matters, the Buckeyes will face Indiana, USC, and Oregon in succession during the middle of the season, although there is a much-needed bye week between USC and Oregon.
If that wasn’t enough, Ohio State also has to travel to the Sea of Red at Memorial Stadium to face Nebraska the week before returning to the ’Shoe for The Game against Michigan.
Needless to say, this year’s schedule is a minefield for the Buckeyes.
As such, it would be a surprise if Ohio State doesn’t find itself with at least a couple of losses — potentially leaving the Buckeyes on the outside looking in on championship Saturday come December.
Oregon and Indiana Lead a Loaded Big Ten Field
Let’s not forget: Indiana, NOT Ohio State, is the reigning Big Ten and national champion.
As such, whether many like it or not, the Hoosiers are currently the top dog — or should I say bison, a nod to Hoosier the Bison — in the conference.
And despite 2025 Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza departing for the NFL, Curt Cignetti has restocked the cupboards at quarterback, out wide, and along the line of scrimmage.
In addition to assembling another talented roster through the transfer portal and recruiting, Cignetti won’t need his Hoosiers to truly be ready until Week 6, when they travel to Nebraska for a mid-October matchup. Indiana opens the 2026 campaign against North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky, Northwestern, and Rutgers.
It’s embarrassing, but the schedule is the schedule.
And come season’s end, the quantity of wins will loom large in Cignetti’s favor, as it has in years past — strength of schedule be damned.
All told, Indiana faces four AP Top 25 teams but is one of only five Power Four schools scheduled to play fewer than 10 games against fellow P4 opponents.
Needless to say, Indiana is likely to win 10-plus games this season.
Then there’s Oregon.
As aforementioned, the Ducks begin the season ranked No. 2 nationally. The 2024 Big Ten champions have garnered plenty of respect, receiving 14 first-place votes of their own.
Oregon brings back projected first-round NFL Draft pick and Heisman Trophy favorite Dante Moore at quarterback. In addition to Moore, a former five-star recruit, head coach Dan Lanning will feature another nine five-star players throughout his roster.
Beyond the bevy of riches residing in Eugene, Lanning ensures his Ducks consistently play to a high standard.
Oregon has lost only to College Football Playoff teams over the past three seasons — twice to Washington in 2023, Ohio State in 2024, and twice to Indiana in 2025.
Needless to say, Oregon has the makings of another 11-win team.
Don’t Sleep on Penn State
And the final team in question — albeit to a lesser degree — is Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are ushering in a new era under head coach Matt Campbell. The former Iowa State ball coach is incredibly well-respected within the game and among his peers, but many media members believe Penn State could be ranked too high at No. 18.
I disagree.
Not because there won’t be a drop-off in talent from recent years — I believe there has been — but because the schedule is unbelievably kind to Campbell in Year 1 in Happy Valley.
Similar to Indiana, the Nittany Lions don’t play a Power Four opponent during their nonconference slate, with Penn State scheduled to face Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo.
In addition, Penn State somehow managed to avoid Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana in Big Ten play.
As such, it’s hardly a stretch to believe Campbell and company could also hit the 10-win mark this season.
BetMGM’s Win Totals Tell a Different Story
Finally, there’s another piece of evidence supporting the argument: BetMGM isn’t treating the almighty Buckeyes as an overwhelming favorite, either.
The sportsbook has set Ohio State’s regular-season win total at just 9.5 — below Oregon (10.5) and Indiana (10.5), and on par with Penn State (9.5).
All odds and lines are subject to change
Think about that for a moment.
The No. 1 team in the country doesn’t even own the highest projected win total in its own conference.
Of course, preseason rankings and betting markets don’t determine championships. The games do.
But that’s precisely the point.
Ohio State may have won the preseason, but with Oregon and Indiana fielding championship-caliber rosters, Penn State possessing a favorable path, and the Buckeyes staring down one of the nation’s most treacherous schedules, being ranked No. 1 in August guarantees nothing.
Just ask last year’s preseason No. 1, Texas.
The Longhorns finished 9-3 and failed to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Could Ohio State suffer a similar fate?
We’re about to find out.
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