It feels like we’ve been on the verge of a College Football Playoff breakthrough for months now—but instead of clarity, all we’re getting is more chaos. Tensions between the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 are boiling over as playoff expansion talks stall out again.
And now, national analyst Josh Pate has added a new theory into the mix—one that’s raising eyebrows and sparking heated debate among college football fans.
On a recent episode of his podcast, Pate said there's a chance this whole 16-team playoff discussion just... dies. Not because there isn’t interest, but because the SEC and Big Ten might walk away altogether.
“We might reach a point where they say, ‘We tried,’ and just go do their own thing,” Pate speculated.
Again, that's just his speculation, not something that has been reported as a legitimate insider information.
The SEC and Big Ten are pushing hard for four automatic qualifiers each in the proposed 16-team format. That’s half the entire field. Meanwhile, the ACC, Big 12, and Group of 5 representatives feel like they’re being boxed out. They argue that no two conferences should be guaranteed eight spots every single year, especially in a sport where things change fast.
According to multiple reports, including from Yahoo’s Ross Dellenger and ESPN’s Pete Thamel, the general framework that’s gaining momentum is a 16-team playoff starting in 2026. The current proposal includes four automatic bids each for the SEC and Big Ten, two apiece for the ACC and Big 12, one for the Group of 5, and three at-large spots. The issue? Nobody can agree on whether that’s fair.
It’s not just about the numbers—it’s about control. The SEC and Big Ten see themselves as the power brokers of the sport. With the biggest TV deals, the largest fanbases, and the strongest brands (for the most part), they believe they've earned the right to dictate playoff terms. But the other conferences are pushing back and that's created some friction.
Reports have floated the idea of “play-in” games within conferences—essentially a mini bracket where third- through sixth-place teams battle for a final spot. It’s an intriguing idea, but the whole "fairness" aspect is questionable.
As it stands now, the 12-team playoff runs through 2025. What happens after that is up in the air. The SEC and Big Ten are clearly preparing for a future where they call the shots. But whether that means they’ll drag the rest of college football along with them—or leave them behind—is the billion-dollar question.
And that’s why Josh Pate’s “what if they walk away?” comment matters. Because it may not be just a theory—it might be a preview of what’s coming if this standoff keeps dragging on.
In the end, we still hold the belief that something will get worked out. But, there's still a chance that the SEC and Big Ten attempt to split — something that we all know they want to do anyway —before the new playoff system is agreed upon.