Ohio State is coming off a 12-2 season. They went 12-0 during the regular season and finally beat Michigan for the 1st time in four seasons. The reason ended, though, with a thud when they lost in the Big Ten Championship game to Indiana, 13-10, and 24-14 in the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff to Miami. Ohio State’s regular-season schedule was very weak last season, outside of a home game against Texas and a visit to Michigan. This season's schedule is much tougher with away games at Texas, Indiana, Iowa, and USC. The home slate is challenging as well, with Oregon and Texas.
Predicting every Ohio State outcome in 2026-27
Game 1: Ohio State vs. Ball State % chance of a loss: 0%
Not trying to be rude, but this is an automatic tune-up game for Ohio State. They should easily win this game. This is a good chance for Ohio State to win easily and come out healthy for the big test next week.
Game  2: Ohio State at Texas % chance of a loss: 55%
This is one of the best games of the season. Both teams will be ranked in the top 10 and possibly the top 5. The star power for this game is outstanding, with Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Ohio State’s wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Texas will also be trying to avenge a loss from last season. Texas should play well, and a 55% chance of winning seems fair.
Game 3: Ohio State vs. Kent State % chance of a loss: 0%
Ditto from week 1.
Game 4: Ohio State vs. Illinois % chance of a loss: 10%
Last season, Illinois was ranked in the top 25 and lost 34-16 to the Buckeyes in a game that wasn’t even that close.  Illinois has a 10% chance of winning this game, which seems about right. Illinois has been a solid team in the last few seasons, but Ohio State is a superior team thus far. Â
Game 5: Ohio State at Iowa % chance of a loss: 25%
Iowa is a strange place to play, as the Hawkeyes play well there. They almost knocked off Indiana last season, and they won the National Championship. A 25% chance seems fair for Iowa to pull off the upset. Also, the last time Ohio State played there, they got defeated.
Game 6: Ohio State vs. Maryland % chance of a loss: 1%
Maryland lost 8 straight games last season to go 4-8 on the season. 1% seems appropriate for a chance to knock off the Buckeyes. They have not been a good program under head coach Mike Locksley. Maryland has not beaten Ohio State since joining the Big Ten.
Game 7: Ohio State at Indiana % chance of a loss: 50%
This is the ultimate toss-up game for the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. This should be a fantastic rematch from the Big Ten Championship Game last season. Both teams are expected to be ranked highly heading into this game. The winner should have the inside track at making the Big Ten Championship game.
Game 8: Ohio State at USC % chance of a loss: 40%
Lincoln Riley has been underwhelming at USC, but this season looks like his best team since he arrived there. A 40% chance is a reasonable chance to win this game for USC. Teams going across two time zones have generally not fared well since the Big Ten expanded to 18 schools.
Game 9: Ohio State vs. Oregon % chance of a loss: 49%
Ohio State’s three-game stretch of Indiana, USC, and Oregon might be three of the toughest games in a row for anyone in College Football. The good thing is the Buckeyes got a bye after the Indiana game at least. Oregon brings back a talented team, so I expect this to be a battle. A 49% chance of a loss seems reasonable.
Game 10: Ohio State vs. Northwestern % chance of a loss: 5%
Northwestern hired Ohio State's former offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, as their offensive coordinator. That’s about the only intrigue in this game, as Ohio State should win this game handily. It would be shocking if Northwestern won this game.
Game 11: Ohio State at Nebraska % chance of a loss: 20%
Nebraska is a tricky game for Ohio State since the week before the Michigan game. Also, Nebraska could be an improved team. A 20% chance of Nebraska pulling off the upset seems about right.
Game 12: Ohio State vs. Michigan % chance of a loss: 25%
This is the ultimate wildcard because no one knows how good Michigan will be this season under new coach Kyle Whittingham. 25% chance of pulling off the victory seems fair. Ohio State will be motivated to win at home against its arch-rival. Ohio State has not beaten Michigan at home since 2018.
Final Verdict
10-2 seems like a reasonable record for Ohio State. They could be 9-3 because the schedule is difficult, but Ohio State is a talented team that should play well and win many games this season. I see them losing to Texas and one other game.
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