Drew Allar might be college football’s biggest ‘boom or bust’ ahead of 2024 season

Penn State’s Drew Allar has attracted massive attention from college football spectators. From the vast majority of fans to scouts, Allar is largely considered to be one of the most intriguing upcoming NFL prospects. 

However, with the overwhelming belief that Allar can be a top college football quarterback, there is much room for disappointment. 

Let’s face it, anyone with a 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame with unbelievable arm strength will draw comparisons to Josh Allen. Frankly, Josh Allen is the dream prototype for a player like Drew Allar. Now carrying the torch of past Penn State quarterbacks such as Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford, Allar holds just as much looming potential. 

Out of Medina High School in Ohio, Allar held loads of talent – the hype surrounding Allar as a prospect intrigued schools including those of the Big Ten. After taking over the starting job as a sophomore, Allar would compile massive stats. He would eventually round out his high school career with 630 completions, 9,103 yards, and 98 touchdowns. Allar became a consensus five-star recruit nationwide.

Allar held many notable offers such as Michigan, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame but ultimately he sided with the Nittany Lions. Ohio State had the final bid for Allar before he chose Penn State. Now, Allar faces the Buckeyes as conference rivals. 

Allar’s arrival to Happy Valley was much anticipated as most sought him as the successor to Sean Clifford. As a true freshman, Allar sat behind Clifford, who led Penn State to an 11-2 record. Still, he played in 10 games tallying 35 completions, 344 yards, and four touchdowns. In his limited action, there was much to like about this young quarterback. In Star Wars fashion, Allar was like an ascending padawan to Sean Clifford, whom he now seized to take the torch.

Following the blueprint laid out to him by James Franklin, Allar then became the starting quarterback in Happy Valley. As a true sophomore, more than ever, the hype behind Allar’s name was real. Some even saw Allar as a potential Heisman candidate with the real possibility of him finally taking the Nittany Lions to the promised land. Effectively, those things did not come true. 

While Allar was good, he was not great, and unfortunately, he did not exceed most people’s expectations. The stats look sharp, however, 13 games started, 233 completions on 389 attempts, 2,631 yards, and 25 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. Frankly, these were great statistics but a bit deceiving. 

On paper, Allar has it all, the perfect quarterback build, the appealing stats, and most importantly the immense potential. Though he had some significant knacks that led many to believe 2023 has become a ‘boom or bust’ season. 

You might ask yourself, “How can a ‘boom or bust’ season be described?” Well, let’s break it down. Firstly, in the scenario that Drew Allar ‘booms’. Sure, you can claim that he had a very solid year last season; and he did, but not enough to be eye-popping. In the perfect scenario for Drew Allar’s 2024 season, Penn State would finally get past the juggernauts of Ohio State and Michigan.

Luckily, or unluckily for Allar and the Nittany Lions, the entire landscape of college football has changed enough to where they do not have to face both juggernauts. 

On the contrary, Penn State will have to face the former Pac-12 teams including UCLA (home), USC (road), and Washington (home). At the same time, Penn State will still face Ohio State at home on November 2 (this game is followed by facing Washington the next week). Like it or not, Penn State’s schedule has become harder to predict and almost less favorable. At least in the past, you could make the safe 10-2 regular season prediction with the same two losses yearly. That is now, no longer the case. This schedule has only gotten harder for the Nittany Lions when factoring in the caliber of these former Pac-12 teams and the distance, such as USC. 

However, in the case where Penn State has massive success in the Big Ten, Drew Allar would almost certainly be a Heisman front-runner. Most could agree this team will not go a long way without a true winning quarterback. And to that extent, that is what is expected of Allar this season. Given the experience that is already under his belt and the unproven nature of most Big Ten quarterbacks, Allar has become that guy.

You can make the claim that Allar is not a top quarterback in the Big Ten. While I will admit, he is definitely not the best Big Ten quarterback, he is certainly the most proven. Thanks to the transfer portal, Oregon acquired Dillion Gabriel, Washington brought in Conner Weigman, USC is expected to roll out Miller Moss in his first season, and both Ohio State and Michigan have new faces behind center. 

While most of these guys have proven themselves elsewhere, there is no telling what could happen with the new-look conference. Reasonably, Allar is the most established “Big Ten quarterback” thus far. However, I am not here to debate quarterbacks in the Big Ten, but rather to dispute between the best scenario and worst scenario for Allar. 

Ultimately, if Allar can finally gel it all together, and clean up some areas of his game to go along with his experience, then PSU can go far. The NFL is big on veteran quarterback success, just look at this past year for example. Bo Nix who played in his sixth season at Oregon managed to get drafted 12th overall, simply by transforming his game and evolving to that next level while leading a very successful team. If Allar can replicate that to an extent then he should have no problem locking in a top 10 draft pick. As mentioned, his intangible abilities including his height, weight, and frame are something that you cannot teach to NFL prospects. 

While it might be hard to stay under his two interceptions thrown stat in 2023, Allar must clean up his accuracy. 

Alright, now that I have praised him enough, it goes without saying that Allar is flawed and must improve to get anywhere close to becoming a Heisman candidate on a successful Penn State team. 

Firstly, and most importantly, Allar folds instantly when under pressure. If you watched any bit of Penn State’s Peach Bowl against Ole Miss, you will see just how bad under pressure Allar was. This is a guy who is indecisive in the pocket, and once it begins to collapse, say goodbye to the play. 

This feeds into the second problem with Allar, which is his inaccuracy. These two things are perpendicular to each other and hold the same significance to Allar’s inefficient play. If you find difficulty in locating precision passes to targets, then you are no NFL prospect or high-valued quarterback. 

Finally, Allar lacks footwork which is yet another essential component to operating behind center. Most of the time when he feels any pressure in the slightest, Allar attempts to adjust but it is not pretty. Subsequently, Allar is not the running type at all. He is limited in how and when he should take off because of his indecisiveness. This is why we witnessed a whole different player in the big games, like Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss.

When you add all these things together, it seems like Allar needs a lot of work. I do believe Allar gets a lot of unnecessary hate. Besides, this is just his first year as a starter. Having said this, it is concerning to see the volume of insufficient mechanics Allar operates with. There were weapons around him last year, and there will be more weapons around him this year.

It is evident that Allar lacks accuracy and it comes directly related to his sense of awareness. It is clear that when there is a defender anywhere in his vicinity, Allar tries to release as quickly as possible and escape the pressure. Even with simple check-downs, Allar tends to struggle. 

Regardless, Drew Allar was a five-star recruit for a reason. Furthermore, his stats and winning record speaks for itself. Taking an optimistic approach, Allar has all the tools he needs to turn this ship around. This is a guy who probably could have entered the Draft last season and been selected, off straight potential. I think Allar is most definitely a project and while Penn State fans should have their slight concerns, there is no reason the Nittany Lions should have a subpar season. 

The standard has been set for Allar at Penn State. With the vast pressure directed toward his name, the big question stands as to how Allar will respond in his junior season. Ascending to the next step will include a massive payout, including immense NFL hype and Penn State playoff aspirations.

Though, is Drew Allar ready to take that step? Only time will tell as the 2024 season draws closer.