Idaho football: Game-by-game predictions for the 2024 Vandals

College football is a tribal war; we fans align ourselves with particular “tribes,” and see red the moment anyone (and I mean anyone) challenges them.

Yet, above all the animosity, one thing stands alone as a relatively universal truth: Idaho football’s pretty cool.

I’m not kidding, look around—99 percent of the time, when a CFB fan is either talking about the Vandals or asked about them, he/she has nothing bad to say.

This could be for multiple reasons, including forgettable geography (the state of Idaho isn’t exactly known as a villain in sports), and the humbling nature of the team’s recent history, as dropping to the FCS rarely seems harmful to a school’s brand.

Speaking of being humbled, the dip in competition took years to benefit the Vandals, with each of their first four seasons at the FCS level resulting in losing records.

It was because of those unrelenting times that the admiration for Idaho football grew all the stronger, with people’s respect for its humility turning more and more into pity for its futility… until 2022.

The 2022 Vandals went 7-4 in their regular-season campaign, earning a spot in the FCS playoff bracket. Though they lost in the first round, the breakthrough paved the way for their 2023 selves, who went 8-3 before making a second postseason appearance that reached the quarterfinal round.

Their final record of 9-4 tied them for the title of "winningest" team ever fielded by the program.

The sudden boom in success has obviously left many dumbfounded, and assuming that what we’ve seen of it so far serves as any implication of what’s to come, one has to wonder what in the world Idaho could be cooking up for this year—and that’s precisely where I come in.

Without further ado, here are my official game-by-game predictions for the 2024 Idaho Vandals.

8/31: at Oregon (L)

Oregon is not only known for having one of the most electric home atmospheres in all of college football but is also a favorite to win it all this year (despite playing in the Big Ten, one of the sport’s toughest conferences).

If Idaho were to somehow win this game, it would probably be in the conversation for the biggest upset since App State-Michigan. In other words, the odds of this one resulting in a Vandals win are almost imaginary.

9/7: at Wyoming (L)

I’m sure there are at least a few Group of 5 teams that Idaho would be capable of beating this year, but with the Cowboys coming off a 9-4 season that saw wins over Texas Tech, App State, Fresno State, and Toledo, I wouldn’t assume they’re one of them.

9/14: Albany (W)

I would consider highlighting this one as the FCS game of the week, as the Vandals have their home opener against the Albany Great Danes, a fellow playoff squad with the distinction of having just eliminated them from the bracket in a competitive 30-22 finish.

As a result of those heightened factors, the Vandals will be all the more amped for this battle, and it’ll surely be worthy of “instant classic” status by its conclusion.

However, despite that typically making for a harder game to predict, I have unwavering confidence in saying that Idaho will be the one prevailing this time, and why? Because of everything we’ve already said and then some.

Remember, this game is both Idaho’s first against an FCS opponent and its first in the iconic Kibbie Dome for this season, and with the Vandals losing to Albany so recently, the chip on their shoulder comes with still-fresh knowledge on how the Great Danes operate.

Also, while the Vandals will surely be fatigued from their aforementioned encounters, it’s not like the Danes will be returning from a spa day, as they’ll be recovering from a run-in with the West Virginia Mountaineers.

So, to summarize for the skimmers out there: This may be one heck of a matchup, but it’s nonetheless Idaho’s to lose.

9/21: at Abilene Christian (W)

The Wildcats are quite mediocre, and I expect that to shine this week. Neither of their last two seasons have seen them lose a home game by more than a touchdown though, so that combining with Idaho’s hangover will probably make things a bit more interesting—but just a bit.

9/28: at UC Davis (L)

Here we have yet another road game, but this time it has the added implications of a conference opener, and is against a team that’s not nearly as mediocre, with UC Davis having produced just one losing season since 2017.

Especially when following all the heat Idaho’s taken up to this point, I think the Aggies will simply be too much to handle under those circumstances.

10/5: Northern Arizona (W)

Oooookay, let’s just rip off this Band-Aid and keep things pushing: The Lumberjacks have struggled for years and the Vandals are back in Moscow for Homecoming. At the halfway point, Idaho is 3-3.

10/12: at Montana State (W)

Might come off as a tad bold, but yes, I think there’s a decent argument to be made for the Vandals getting a dub in Bozeman.

While the Bobcats have been good enough to hit eight wins or more in each of their last five seasons, they've been on a visible decline since their appearance in the 2021-22 FCS title game, and the Vandals contributed to it by beating them in Moscow last October.

On top of that, neither of MSU’s two wins over Idaho (in its current FCS state) were convincing, with the more “lopsided” of the pair being decided by a touchdown (those same championship runner-up Bobcats beat the 4-7 Vandals 20-13).

Hmm, so let’s see: The rising Vandals are facing a weakening Bobcats team that has never been able to shake them, and they’re doing so just a year after winning their last encounter? Yeah, I’ll take my chances on this one.

10/19: Cal Poly (W)

Keeping with the theme of teams that lost to Idaho last year, we have the Cal Poly Mustangs, who make for what is unquestionably the easiest game on this schedule.

The Mustangs are not only bad, but unwatchable, having finished with a losing record every year since 2016. In fact, they have been playing so poorly that you can combine their wins from the past three seasons and it still wouldn’t match how many the Vandals got in 2023 alone.

With a contrast in quality that stark, I see no reason as to why Idaho shouldn’t win this game by at least three possessions.

10/26: Eastern Washington (W)

Another team down on its luck, Eastern Washington is coming off of back-to-back losing seasons and has lost four of its last five meetings with Idaho.

Especially since the Vandals will be at home and have this game in as comfortable of a spot as it could ever be placed, the idea of the Eagles taking this one seems merely too far-fetched to humor.

11/9: at Portland State (W)

It may sound mean, but Portland State (or, as I like to call it, “Cal Poly 2.0”) has no business being handed even the slightest chance of victory entering this battle.

Allow me to set the scene for you: The Vikings have not experienced the glory of a positive record since 2015, and though they do have home-field advantage for this game, they also have an Idaho squad that’s coming off a bye, which is far more gracious than the walloping they were just dealt by Sacramento State—a name that hasn’t seen a negative record since 2018.

So, with all of that in mind, forgive me for not seeing a world in which the Vikes are capable of killing Idaho’s win streak.

11/16: Weber State (L)

Oof, I just had to mention that win streak, huh?

Throughout the entirety of this analysis, I, as usual, have highlighted the importance of what our eyes tell us, stressing any consistencies/inconsistencies visible within the performance of each team I cover, and for the first time in what feels like forever, that method is going to do Idaho more harm than good.

The Weber State Wildcats have finished positive every year since 2014, with four seasons in that stretch hitting double-digit win totals. That gives them a solid argument for being the most consistently successful team on Idaho’s schedule, and when tossing that in with the fact that Idaho is yet to beat them since joining the Big Sky Conference, I don’t think there’s much else to say.

11/23: at Idaho State (W)

It should go without saying that suffering your first loss in over a month is always going to shake things up, but right before going on the road for rivalry week? Ouch! That’ll be tough to bounce back from, right? Surprisingly, no, that could not be more wrong, and why? Because Idaho State is absolutely dreadful.

To put things numerically, the Bengals have a whopping five wins to their name since 2020, making them the worst team on Idaho’s schedule as of late. As for how they’ve been doing against the Vandals in particular, they’ve lost four of their last five meetings in embarrassing fashion, with the closest of their defeats being in 2021 when they lost 14-0 at home.

Now what does that mean logically? It's simple: Idaho State is in for a beatdown.

That brings my final tally for the 2024 Vandals to 8-4, tying them with last year’s team for the most regular-season wins their program has seen since dropping to the FCS. Therefore, it seems to me that the recent success of Idaho football is neither a fluke nor going anywhere.