What Illinois football record will keep Bret Bielema off the hot seat in 2024?

If you're an Illinois football fan, you have to be wondering when you're going to catch a break. Bret Bielema came in ahead of the 2021 season, went 5-7 right away and then won eight games and contended in the Big Ten West in 2022.

Unfortunately, Illinois' high hopes for 2023 were dashed with another 5-7 season and now the Big Ten is only getting tougher with the elimination of divisions and additions of UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon.

It's safe to say that Illinois may have missed its very narrow window in the West.

Now, entering the 2024 season with Luke Altmeyer back at quarterback and a decent crop of talent coming in, the expectations have to be bowl game or bust. There can be no more missing bowl games if Bielema wants to have better luck in Champaign than he did at his previous stop in Arkansas.

At Arkansas, he had a similar pattern, going 10-15 through his first two seasons before winning eight games and winning the fanbase back over. All he did after that, though, was regress with 7-6 and 4-8 seasons before getting fired.

Will we see the same thing play out here?

Looking at the schedule, it really sets up for a successful end of the regular season with four very winnable games to end the year. Unfortunately, I don't see many wins in the late-September through late-October stretch. The Illini face Nebraska, Penn State, and Oregon on the road while hosting Michigan and Purdue. That feels like a 1-4 stretch.

Let's say they are 1-4 in that stretch, that means they'll be either 4-4 or 3-5 heading into November with four games that could all be wins. They host Minnesota and a new-look Michigan State team before hitting the road to face Rutgers and Northwestern. Going 3-1 in that stretch will guarantee a bowl.

Will 6-6 be enough to keep Bielema off the hot seat? I honestly think it's going to take 7-8 wins and victories over the likes of Kansas, Minnesota, and Michigan State while also stealing one of the last two games on the road to keep him off it. That's going to require a lot of work.

I'm not so sure the pieces are there to get it done.