Which elite QB from the 2023 recruiting class is in the best situation to succeed as the full-time starter in 2024?

The 2023 high school recruiting class, as many classes are, was all about the quarterback position. Arch Manning was the headliner in a group that featured five five-stars, equalling the 2021 group for the most since Matt Barkley, Russell Shepard, Garrett Gilbert, Aaron Murray, and Tajh Boyd were all five-star passers in 2009. 

Manning heads into the 2024 season as Quinn Ewers’ backup at Texas, and after disappointing freshman years in LA, both Dante Moore and Malachi Nelson fled for the transfer portal, Moore going from UCLA to Oregon and Nelson from USC to Boise State. That leaves just Nico Iamaleava at Tennessee and Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma as the only five-star QBs from 2023 who are stepping into starting roles for the school that recruited them. 

Beyond just that group, there were also nine quarterbacks in the top 100 only one fewer than the vaunted 2021 QB class. Christopher Vizzina is the backup at Clemson, Jaden Rashada left Arizona State to learn behind Carson Beck at Georgia, and Eli Holstein departed Alabama to compete for reps at Pitt, but at Kansas State, Avery Johnson sent the incumbent Will Howard out the door and grabbed the reins of the Wildcats’ offense. 

After watching Johnson ooze dual-threat talent in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, he’s now one of the most intriguing first-time starters in the country. Checking in at No. 15, 16, and 18 in the preseason AP Poll, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Kansas State are all “Core Four” programs with College Football Playoff aspirations riding on their young quarterbacks, so it’s worthwhile to evaluate which team is putting its first-time starter in the best position to succeed in 2024. 

Nico Iamaleava

When an offensive system has success, especially the type of success that Art Briles did at Baylor with Robert Griffin III, it typically catches on like wildfire. However, Briles and his slow-growing coaching tree protected the secrets of the "veer-and-shoot" offense and the advantage it gave them in Waco.

Eventually, word spread and it finally got to Josh Heupel, a disciple of the air raid from his time as the quarterback at Oklahoma under offensive coordinator Mike Leach, when Heupel was hired as Missouri’s offensive coordinator in 2016. That same season, Mizzou hired a new tight ends coach, Joe Jon Finley, who had spent 2015 as an offensive quality control coach at Baylor in Briles’ final season. Finley accelerated the integration of veer-and-shoot principles into Heupel’s system which he eventually took to UCF as the head coach of the Knights. 

There, Jeff Lebby, a former Briles assistant, was Heupel’s offensive coordinator and the two refined the offense for Dillon Gabriel. Over the past two seasons, Lebby instituted his version of the veer-and-shoot with a power running game with Gabriel at Oklahoma. Lebby left to become the head coach at Mississippi State this offseason, but still, two of the three elite 2023 quarterbacks taking over the starting job this year will be operating in one of the most quarterback-friendly systems. 

After a remarkable 2022 season with Hendon Hooker, Tennessee took a step back in 2023 with Joe Milton III playing quarterback. That’s because for all the downfield aggressiveness in Heupel’s offense, it’s an accuracy and decision-making offense, not an arm-strength one. Gabriel’s success at OU last season proves that. 

Nico Iamaleava may not be able to throw an orange 120 yards like Milton, but he has above-average arm strength and more importantly he maintains horsepower and accuracy when throwing from a variety of platforms and arm angles. This throw from his 12/19 151-yard one-touchdown performance against Iowa in the Citrus Bowl is just one example.

The numbers through the air in that game weren’t excellent but they could’ve been much better with a bit more help from his receivers. His receivers registered two drops out of his seven incompletions, including one that was a sure touchdown. Still, Iamaleava showcased the other element of his game, his rushing ability. 

Iamaleava ran the ball 15 times for 27 yards and three touchdowns against one of the country’s best defenses. While that’s not tremendous efficiency, he has more than enough athleticism to feature designed QB runs in the offense which puts even more pressure on already stressed-out linebackers. 

The primary reason to run the veer-and-shoot offense is that the tempo, aggressiveness, and wide splits help to raise the floor for your offense regardless of the talent. Heupel has gotten excellent production out of it with questionable offensive linemen, one-trick-ponies at wide receiver, and reclamation projects at quarterback. Now, with a five-star QB and upgrades across the rest of the rest of the roster, this unit might explode in 2024. 

Last season, Squirrel White led the Vols in receiving yards with 803 on 67 catches and he’s back, but at 5-foot-10 165 pounds, he’s not exactly the platonic ideal of a No. 1 receiver. Tennessee lost Jaylin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman to the 2023 NFL Draft and weren’t prepared to replace them. This offseason, Heupel corrected his mistake, adding two wide receivers and two tight ends in the transfer portal. 

White was forced into that role when Bru McCoy suffered an injury just five games into the season and was lost for the year. With McCoy back, White will remain in the slot, but with fewer targets and Tulane transfer, Chris Brazzell II will start on the other outside receiver spot. 

At 6-foot-5 195 pounds, Brazzell would never be confused for a guy nicknamed squirrel. Brazzell uses his beanstalk frame well in the red zone and he caught over half of his targets over 20 yards downfield. 

Adding Brazzell to a group that already included 6-foot-3 McCoy and 6-foot-5 Dont’e Thornton Jr. gives Tennessee the size and speed to stretch the field vertically. Iamaleava just needs to have enough time to do so. 

Against Iowa, Iamaleava was sacked six times. The addition of former five-star Lance Heard from LSU at left tackle should plug some holes up front, but those sack numbers were also a symptom of Iamleava’s lack of pocket awareness as a young player. That will improve with reps, but his eyes came down quickly and for all his physical gifts, he turned 12 pressures into six sacks. His time to throw in that game was 3.58 seconds, when Hooker was at his best in 2022, he took just 2.60 seconds to get the ball out of his hands. 

Tennessee’s offensive artillery is improved from 2023 and the offensive line should be better. Vols fans are justified in their optimism, but there were red flags throughout Iamaleava’s Citrus Bowl performance. Luckily, Heupel is the perfect offensive coach to cover those up. 

Jackson Arnold

In many ways, Jackson Arnold will have all the same scheme advantages in Norman that Iamaleava has in Knoxville. Oklahoma wanted to establish a whole new identity after Lincoln Riley left for LA, like dying your hair blonde after a breakup, the Sooners hired Brent Venables from Clemson. Still, Venables wanted an offensive innovator and hired Lebby, then the Ole Miss offensive coordinator, and an Oklahoma graduate. 

After two years of prolific offensive production with Gabriel back in the veer-and-shoot, Lebby took the head job in Starkville. New OU OC Seth Littrell learned the system under Lebby and will run a version of it with Arnold in 2024. Still, Lebby’s departure is a significant one and helps strengthen the argument for hiring offensive head coaches because unless he flees to the West Coast to avoid the SEC, then you hold onto his system. 

While Littrell will still take advantage of the wide-splits and power running principles of Oklahoma’s veer-and-shoot, it will take him time to adjust to being the play-caller in Norman and even longer to find the small adjustments and play-sequencing that truly unlocks the offense. Littrell will be running Lebby’s stuff, while in Tennessee Heupel will be running Heupel’s stuff, and Iamaleava’s onboarding into one of the country’s most secretive offensive systems will be that much smoother. 

It’s an offense that’s designed the make all the quarterback's decisions as easy as possible. By using all 52.5 yards across the line of scrimmage, linebackers, and safeties are forced to declare their intentions even before the ball is snapped. Yet, in the Alamo Bowl against Arizona, Arnold was still making a lot of mistakes. 

Arnold went 26 of 45 through the air for 361 yards and two scores, but he threw three interceptions including two on the first three drives of the game. The third turnover was on his receiver, but the first two were examples of compounding a poor decision with an even worse throw. 

Despite the loss to Arizona, there were flashes of brilliance like this ridiculous 10-yard touchdown throw. Arnold is on time and pinpoint accurate while rolling to his left with pressure in his face. There might not be 10 other quarterbacks in the country that can do this. 

The first trial run for Arnold playing in Littrell’s offense had mixed results and while that duo won’t change, the cast of characters around the young quarterback will. 

This offseason, the Sooners massively upgraded at wide receiver. After Andrel Anthony suffered a season-ending injury in the Red River Rivalry, Drake Stoops emerged as the No. 1 option for Gabriel, and with Jalil Farooq’s inconsistencies, an offense that thrives on stretching the field horizontally prior to the snap and vertically after it, noticeably flattened out. 

Both Anthony and Farooq will be back, and the same goes for redshirt sophomore Nic Anderson who caught the game-winning touchdown against Texas. The 6-foot-4 receiver was a big-play machine, finishing with 10 touchdowns last year and averaging 21.0 yards per reception. He was top 50 in the entire country in yards after the catch per reception (7.2), but Venables made sure that Arnold and Littrell had even more depth to withstand an injury without needing to force-feed a sixth-year nepo-baby 107 targets. 

Drake Stoops was good in that underneath role from the slot, but Purdue transfer Deion Burks, who hauled in 47 passes for 629 yards and seven touchdowns with shaky quarterback play in West Lafayette, will be an immediate dynamic upgrade. Burks only played 33 snaps in the slot for the Boilermakers as a junior but at 5-foot-9 he’ll find a home there in Littrell’s offense. 

Wide receiver was a weakness for the Sooners last season, one that Gabriel’s experience and athleticism were able to cover up, but thanks to improving health and Venables’s aggressiveness in the portal, Arnold won’t have to. 

Arnold has the most talented group of pass catchers, but with a change at offensive coordinator and a performance in the Alamo Bowl that raised a lot of red flags, his situation might be the toughest. That’s good news for the three quarterbacks who stuck to the plan at the school that recruited them because Iamaleava, Arnold, and Johnson could all have massive sophomore seasons. 

Avery Johnson

Despite his billing as the No. 9 QB in the 2023 class and a 247Sports composite four-star recruit, after just one start in the Pop-Tarts Bowl for Kansas State, Avery Johnson may have as much hype heading into 2024 as any quarterback in the country. 

Johnson went just 14/31 passing against NC State for 178 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s not his arm that has all of Manhattan, Kansas buzzing. The 6-foot-2 192-pound sophomore might be the fastest quarterback in the country. He ran the ball seven times for 71 yards and a score in his first career start. 

When Will Howard, who has since transferred to Ohio State, was hampered against Texas Tech in 2023, Johnson torched the Red Raiders for 90 yards and five touchdowns on the ground with just 13 carries. 

Here was No. 3 on QB power: 

K-State hasn't seen a dual-threat at quarterback like this since Collin Klein, who coincidentally served as Johnson's offensive coordinator last season. Klein holds the program record for career rushing touchdowns at 56, a record that, after running for seven scores as a freshman, Johnson could eventually threaten.

With speed like that in the backfield, K-State and new offensive coordinator Conor Riley understandably want to build the offense around the ground game. DJ Giddens, who led the team with 1,226 rushing yards on 223 carries is back for his junior season, but Chris Klieman felt that his backfield needed even more electricity and plucked Dylan Edwards away from Colorado. 

As a freshman, Edwards averaged 4.2 yards per carry behind an abysmal offensive line in Boulder and flashed big play ability. Under Klein, who left for Texas A&M this offseason, the Wildcats were primarily a gap-scheme team while Edwards is more of a zone runner. However, with Johnson now at quarterback, Riley will want to call more zone runs and give his dynamic quarterback the option to pull the ball.

In the Pop Tarts Bowl, NC State was terrified of letting Johnson get into space, routinely committing at least one defender to him and allowing Giddens to average 5.4 yards on 28 carries in the process. 

Riley, who was elevated from his role as offensive line coach, will lean into that run-first style. Even after losing fullback/tight end hybrid and leading receiver Ben Sinnott to the NFL, the Wildcats still have multiple tight ends who will all share the field. Garrett Oakley, Will Swanson, and Brayden Loftin will all see snaps at the position, arguably the most important in this offense. 

While Heupel and Littrell will look to leverage horizontal spacing to create mismatches for receivers, Riley’s system and play-calling style have been described as “creative dominance” and that starts in the trenches. K-State will use physicality, misdirection, and the simple numerical edge that a rushing quarterback provides to create one of the most effective running games in the country. Johnson’s rushing yards won’t all be derived from his overwhelming athleticism, they’ll be intentional. 

Remember that QB power run? That’s a lot of what Johnson provides and what he’s asked to do with his legs. 256 of his 311 rushing yards came on designed runs and he only scrambled four times across 72 dropbacks. All four were when facing pressure. Against pressure, Johnson held onto the ball for nearly five seconds per dropback and yet he was only sacked twice and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. 

With Kansas State potentially breaking in four new offensive linemen, that escapability and willingness to keep his eyes downfield will allow Riley to deliver the play-action pass knockout punches that this offense will look to set up. While this run-first offense with heavy sets sounds like three yards in a cloud of dust-type stuff, that’s really not the case. When asked about his offense in a press conference this spring, Riley’s synopsis began with coaching buzzwords like execution and of course physicality, but he finished by saying, “Ultimately we want to be explosive and efficient.”

Sure, that’s still coach-speak, but it’s a different genre and not one you’d expect from a former offensive line coach. That could be because Riley isn’t the only influence on that side of the ball. Along with Riley, K-State added former Utah State head coach Matt Wells, who helped develop Jordan Love, as the quarterbacks coach and co-offensive coordinator. Oh and in 2015, just before his full veer-and-shoot conversion at Missouri Heupel brought his air-raid offense out to Utah State as Wells’ offensive coordinator in 2015. 

That’s all to say, Johnson will be asked to take shots downfield in this offense and he has plenty of arm to do it. The bigger question is if he’ll have the receivers to get open. Jayce Brown is the most intriguing returner on the outside. As a freshman in 2023, he produced 437 yards and three touchdowns, went four for five on contest catch attempts, and though it came on a small sample size, his 19.44 yards per route run over 20 yards downfield ranked 37th in the entire country. 

Opposite Brown will be Penn State transfer Dante Cephas who had an underwhelming year in Happy Valley after a prolific career at Kent State. With a big season, Cephas has a chance to prove that his struggles in the Big Ten were more a symptom of his quarterback play than the other way around. Of the three situations, the wide receiver depth around Johnson stands out, and not in a good way. 

Still, the rushing baseline will provide Kansas State’s offense with an incredibly safe floor of production, much like the wide-open downfield passing of the Tennessee and Oklahoma offense, just in a much different and potentially more reliable way. Even with big concerns about the baseline of talent around him, the level of competition in a Red River Rivalry-less Big 12, is Johnson’s biggest advantage. 

All three programs had enough foresight and stability to give these elite quarterback prospects a soft landing in the college game and without a sure-fire returning Heisman trophy favorite, outside of Dillon Gabriel at Georgia, Iamaleava, Arnold, and Johnson could take over college football a lot sooner than anybody expected.