The ACC’s days as a stable power conference are officially numbered.
With the recent settlement, we now have a concrete exit fee that decreases year by year, making it easier than ever for the SEC and Big Ten to poach top programs. No more speculation—there’s a price tag, and it's only getting cheaper, reportedly down to just $75 million to exit after 2030.
The biggest brands in the ACC—Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, and Miami—have long been linked to potential moves, and now that the financial barriers are crumbling, the realignment frenzy is going to begin at some point in the next few years. Neither the SEC nor the Big Ten is looking to expand right now, but just wait until the television contracts begin to be negotiated. WIth the two conferences continuing their arms race, they'll be looking for new brands.
So, where will these schools end up? Let’s break down the most likely landing spots in a world where the ACC’s grip is slipping fast.
Predicting where each ACC team will land when they leave the conference
Clemson Tigers: SEC
Clemson is the most SEC-esque team not in the SEC already. The Tigers have a stadium that holds nearly 81,000 and they have a big fanbase and highly-recognized brand. Say what you want to about "geography" and "TV markets." We've already seen how that doesn't work in the grand scheme of things. It's about brands, and Clemson is arguably the biggest brand that the SEC could add. It's a perfect match for the two and, honestly,
Florida State Seminoles: Big Ten
Florida State has long been considered a potential expansion candidate for the Big Ten. The Big Ten is going to want to expand south and that will make teams like Florida State, Clemson, and UNC prime targets. The Seminoles have a
North Carolina Tar Heels: SEC
The SEC will get the brands in its geographical region that it wants to get, or at least we think they will. With North Carolina continuing to grow as a brand — Bill Belichick couldn't have come at a better time — the Tar Heels will be a prime target in expansion.
Miami Hurricanes: Big Ten
Miami was reportedly a candidate for expansion when the Big Ten made its last big move in 2022, and those talks are only going to heat up. The University of Miami was invited to join the AAU in 2023, which is also a big deal for the Big Ten.
What about the rest of the ACC?
With the Big Ten already at 18 members and the SEC at 16 members, it will be interesting to see how many more members the two conferences are even open to taking. Obviously, Notre Dame would get an invite if the Fighting Irish ever decided to join a conference full-time.
Virginia could potentially be a target for the SEC if they fall into the "TV market" trap, but it's not as if the Cavaliers by themselves are a big brand. However, they do have a sizable alumni base and perhaps an SEC affiliation could be enough to turn that program around.
We highly doubt many other schools will get a look unless both of the conferences want to expand to a much larger number than they are already at. In my opinion, you could look at a situation where the Big 12 and remaining ACC members — or potentially members just on the border of being left out of the SEC and Big Ten — merge together to give us a third conference with the biggest quantity.
Only time will tell, but don't be surprised when we have another round of conference realignment in a few years. For now, though, the landscape should quiet down, at least for a little while.