The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is finally here, and each team’s path to glory is laid out. While some programs are undeniable powerhouses, others face significant hurdles in their quest to win it all.
Here's our rankings for each team based on their chances of claiming the national title.
12. Boise State Broncos
Boise State has had a phenomenal season, led by standout running back Ashton Jeanty. Despite Jeanty’s impressive 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, the Broncos’ overall lack of experience against top-tier opponents makes them a long shot.
Even as the No. 3 seed, their potential path through Penn State or SMU, followed by likely Georgia, is daunting. Beyond Jeanty, the team lacks the depth and firepower to match the nation's elite.
11. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has been a feel-good story this season, showcasing a versatile offense and a sturdy defense. But their impressive stats mask some vulnerabilities, especially when matched against stronger teams.
A road trip to Notre Dame will test their mettle, and if they somehow win, Georgia looms in the quarterfinals. It’s a Cinderella story, but the clock may strike midnight early for the Hoosiers.
10. SMU Mustangs
Known for their explosive offense, SMU enters the playoffs as an exciting underdog. Players like Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith can change games with their big-play ability. However, their lack-of-experience in big time games is a concern.
Honestly, SMU looked shell-shocked in the first half of the ACC Championship game against Clemson. A trip to Penn State in the first round might expose that lack-of-experience even more.
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils’ season has been nothing short of miraculous. Their ground game, led by Cam Skattebo, is one of the best in the country. However, their lack of depth at receiver following Jordyn Tyson’s injury makes their offense one-dimensional.
Beating Texas or Clemson in the quarterfinals would be a tall order, and the idea of a semifinal showdown with Oregon further dims their chances.
8. Clemson Tigers
The Tigers have been inconsistent this year, but they remain a dangerous team under Dabo Swinney’s leadership. With talent at every position, Clemson could pose a real threat to Texas in their opening matchup. However, their No. 32-ranked pass rush will need to step up if they hope to disrupt Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns’ offense.
While Clemson has championship pedigree, this year’s squad feels like an outside contender, which is right where Dabo Swinney wants it to be.
7. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee’s road to the title might be the toughest of any team. Facing Ohio State in Columbus is a nightmare matchup, and a win would set them up against Oregon in the quarterfinals.
While their defense, led by EDGE James Pearce Jr., is formidable, and Dylan Sampson anchors a strong running game, the Volunteers’ chances hinge on surviving two of the nation’s best teams in back-to-back weeks.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish have been dominant this season, riding a 10-game winning streak into the playoffs. Their balanced offense, led by Riley Leonard and a two-headed rushing attack, is hard to stop.
Hosting Indiana in the first round should be a manageable test, but a potential quarterfinal matchup with Georgia is a different story. If Notre Dame can exploit the Bulldogs’ injured quarterback situation, their odds improve significantly.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State has the talent to compete with anyone, but their road to the championship is full of obstacles. Hosting Tennessee in the first round is no small task, and a quarterfinal rematch against Oregon looms large.
While the Buckeyes boast the nation’s top-ranked defense, their offense’s inconsistency raises concerns. Coach Ryan Day’s job might hinge on a deep playoff run.
4. Texas Longhorns
Texas enters the playoffs with one of the most favorable paths. A first-round matchup with Clemson is tough but winnable, and a potential quarterfinal against Arizona State makes for another manageable test.
However, the Longhorns’ inconsistent offense, coupled with Quinn Ewers’ lingering ankle issues, could derail their championship hopes. If they find their rhythm, though, Texas could make noise in the semifinals.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions have a golden opportunity to make a deep run.
With a first-round home game against SMU and a matchup with Boise State in the quarterfinals, Penn State could cruise into the semifinals. Their balanced attack and defensive prowess make them a legitimate contender, but their struggles against elite teams earlier this season cast doubt on their ability to win it all.
2. Oregon Ducks
Oregon enters the playoffs as the No. 1 seed and an undefeated team. Led by Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks boast a dynamic offense and a suffocating defense. While their path includes a tough potential semifinal against Ohio State or Tennessee, Oregon’s experience in close games gives them an edge.
Gabriel’s leadership could be the deciding factor in their title run.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
Despite questions at quarterback, Georgia remains the team to beat. Coach Kirby Smart’s ability to scheme around weaknesses is unmatched, and the Bulldogs’ defense is as fearsome as ever. With a bye into the quarterfinals and favorable matchups, Georgia’s path to another national championship feels achievable.
Until someone dethrones them, they’re the favorites.