Sacramento State's FBS move: Does it make sense?

Last week, Sacramento State University took a step in evolving its athletics programs. The school applied to join the FBS subdivision. This has come after the school flirted with getting into the new look PAC-12. There are still plans for that to happen, as an entire committee is formed to try and make this plan work.

Despite not getting invited into a conference to start their FBS tenure, the Hornets have no problem starting off as an independent. The school will remain in the Big Sky Conference in the FCS for the 2025 season before moving up in 2026. If the school gets approved for the transition, they'll be ineligible for postseason play in their first year as an FBS program.

It's a dumb rule that makes no sense. However, the rules are the rules. More importantly, though, the question that needs to be asked is how much can the transition positively impact the program. While it's easy to say it'll benefit the school greatly, it's not as easy as it seems. You see, since 2000, there have been 22 programs that have made the jump from the FCS to the FBS.

As you can see, the FBS has grown a lot since the start of the 21st century. Twenty-two schools have been added throughout this stretch. Most of the additions have come since 2012. Some teams, like UTSA, James Madison, and Liberty, have seen massive success. Other arrivals like UMass and Charlotte have been failures so far.

There's no guarantee that Sac State will be able to compete at the FBS level right away. Unlike most other schools, who have had lengthy resumes of success at the FCS before moving, the Hornets are a different story. Sacramento State has been playing football in the FCS since 1993. Since then, the program has only had 10 winning seasons, four conference titles, and four FCS Playoff appearances.

Most of that success occurred during the recent four-year run with Troy Taylor as coach. It's not like they've been a long-sustained powerhouse. Last season, the program went 3-9. Now, there are some positives of the program joining the FBS. Of course, it'll give the team more exposure from a media perspective. It helps that Sacramento is the 20th largest media market in the U.S., according to Nexstar Media Group, INC.

The city also has a large population. As of March of this year, Sacramento ranks 35th in the country for total population and is also the sixth-largest city in California. As far as the university is concerned, just over 30,000 students were enrolled as of Fall 2024, a 2.4% increase from the previous year.

The school has already seen a rise, and its football team being in the FBS could help boost enrollment even more. Also, Sacramento is a city that hosts major sports teams. The Athletics of MLB are having an experimental season in the city this year before they move to Las Vegas. Of course, you also have the NBA's Sacramento Kings, who have one of the most loyal fanbases in pro basketball.

The potential is there for Sacramento State to be a force in the city, especially when there aren't more major teams for the residents to root for. The school is a great area that can give the program what's needed for the transition. School president Luke Wood and athletic director Mark Orr have been adamant about advancing the Hornets to the top level of NCAA athletics. The evidence is in their words and moves.

""No middle for us. FBS or bust. The best of the best or bust. That's what our student athletes deserve.""

CSUS president Luke Wood via X (1/23/25)

In addition to being in a big-named city and seeming committed to taking the program to the next level, they have appeared to get at least $50 million in NIL money to aid this plan even more. That seems to be the case as the school has gone after big names to become coaches of their respective programs. The institution was in talks with former NFL Pro Bowl quarterback Michael Vick to be their new head coach. Vick eventually opted to be the coach at Norfolk State instead.

Even more recently, the school hired former Sacramento Kings point guard Mike Bibby to be their new men's basketball coach.

This move was made more for public relations than anything. For those who don't know, Bibby was a key piece of a Kings team that was a legitimate championship contender in the NBA's Western Conference. Don't tell the league the referees cheat them out of the 2002 title. Joking aside, Bibby has had no experience coaching at the college or NBA level. All he has is time coaching high school ball and his son's AAU team.

However, I don't think many people are hating on the move. On a personal note, I'm hoping that Bibby helps turn around the Hornets basketball team and gets them into the NCAA Tournament. For the football head coaching job, Sac State hired an up-and-coming offensive guru Brennan Marion from UNLV. This is a move that's getting a lot of positive feedback, and rightfully so.

However, between the flirting with Vick and the hiring of Bibby, it seems that the school is making surprising moves that are confusing. During the early stages of their proposed FBS move, the school was operating in a fashion that was calculated. There was a plan and vision in place, especially with the football stadium. We'll get to that in a moment.

Now, it feels as if the people in charge are making flashy, big-time moves to prove to the FBS Oversight Committee that they're on the right track. Also, former NBA players haven't had many great results at college programs historically. It also seems as if the hiring of Bibby is trying to serve as a distraction from two things.

First are the new complexes that are being built for the basketball and football teams. First, we'll quickly touch over the basketball complex. Wood is promising a new on-campus facility for the basketball squads to play their games in. It was supposed to be completed before the start of the Fall 2024 semester but is now slated to be opened sometime next season.

However, all we've gotten was a tweet from Wood himself. On January 11, he posted a video over 30 seconds, showing that the new basketball arena is under construction. Next to that is an AI-generated of what the new facility will look like. To be honest, it's very underwhelming. It looks like the current small gym where the hoops teams are playing in now.

The only difference is that this new arena looks bigger due to there being more bleacher seating. There's also a balcony and some added scoreboards. To be fair, this is still an improvement, and it'll be nice for the men's and women's hoops teams to have new locker rooms. There should also be new amenities for fans to enjoy. However, this project is supposed to cost $5 million.

After looking at these videos, it can make people ask, "Is this worth $5 million? Is this money that well spent?" Now, let's move over to the supposed new renovations to the football stadium. On social media, the school and Wood had no issue sharing the renderings below. It's supposed to undergo it's construction later on this summer.

Look at these renderings. Do you see all the cool green lights everywhere? Do you see a large increase in seats inside the stadium? Do you see the modern-looking outside of the building? It looks like a great piece of architecture. But guess what? It's not happening!

Yes, after showing these renderings on social media and having a whole press conference about it, the CSUS administration and Wood are shifting goalposts. It was all just a bunch of nonsense. I encourage you to read an interview composed by The State Hornet, a student-run school news station, with the aforementioned president. Here is his statement on those renderings.

""The conceptual renderings are being used as a 'guidepost'. We are going to build what we can afford and stay within our resources. I'm sure there are people who would love to have us build a half-a-billion-dollar stadium, but that's not happening.""

Luke Wood via The State Hornet

In reality, the stadium has a series of three phases in which minor renovations are made. The first phase of renovations will cover $2.5 million in upgraded amenities, such as seating in the end zones and new lighting. The second stage will be known as the 'construction phase,' which will start in 2026. The final phase will be completed between 2027 and 2029. However, there are no plans to expand the stadium to accommodate a large capacity of over 20,000 fans, something that the rendering hinted at.

Most of the changes are going to be small ones. So, we have a school administration staff that is visibly desperate to move up to the FBS and that accumulated $50 million. Yet, they've used some of that cash to hire a big-name basketball coach with no experience, create an on-campus basketball arena that's not much of an improvement from the facility they play in now, and have somewhat lied about renovations to the football stadium.

That's not a good look for the institution and could bite them behind. One last hurdle still needs to be discussed concerning Sacramento State's hopeful transition to the FCS. That comes in the form of the aforementioned FBS Oversight Committee. This is an aspect that often gets overlooked or forgotten about when it comes to moving up to college football's highest division.

The group is made up of representatives that mostly come from power conferences, such as the ACC and SEC. Why is this important to bring up? Well, the FBS subdivision will be made up of 136 schools. It's no secret that the group doesn't have a desire for the subdivision to expand now. 16 universities have expanded the FBS since 2012, and conferences are stacked with large collections of teams.

The Mountain West had to deal with this headache when expanding its football league for future years. Due to the FBS leaders not wanting the division to expand more, the conference poached the MAC by getting Northern Illinois to become a football-only member. The Huskies are expected to move ihe Mountain West in 2026.

The commissioner of the conference, Gloria Nevarez, touched on the FBS not wanting to expand. In an interview with Nevada Sportsnet, she proclaimed, "FCS has some amazing programs, ones that could come in immediately and be middle of the league, if not higher, and be competitive. The issue for us right now is that it's a two-year waiting period, and there's significant political headwinds about expanding the membership of FBS. Not adding FCS."

Due to the large amount of schools already present in the FBS, it's understandable why they wouldn't want any more. More likely than not, even if Sacramento State does get into the FBS for 2026, it won't be in a 'dream position.' The Hornets will either start as an independent or be placed in fledgling Conference USA.

Neither is a favorable spot. Life has always been hard for independents in college football. Just ask UConn. Even Notre Dame has had difficulties in some aspects because they are not aligned in a conference. Conference USA has had a history that's been marred by schools coming and going.

C-USA feels like a 'minor league' system where upstart FBS programs begin their tenure before moving to another league. So, with that being said, along with the confusing move made by the school, does a jump now make sense? Many would probably not think this would.

Between the random changes made by the school involving their complexes and everything else going on, they're not making themselves seem like a worthy candidate for the FBS Committee. We'll see what occurs in the following days and months that follow. The Committee is expected to meet on April 10 and could discuss this topic.